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<p>In mature regions, reserve growth is primarily driven by new field discoveries and expansions in existing fields, with the latter being the dominant contributor. As exploration efforts intensify in the Bohai Bay Basin, it becomes crucial to conduct a comprehensive analysis of reserve growth patterns and trends within established fields. Such analysis is vital for assessing future growth potential and formulating effective reserves planning and exploration strategies. This study focused specifically on offshore oilfields in the Bohai Bay Basin. A modified Arrington model was applied to data from 97 fields discovered between 1979 and 2023 to develop reserve growth prediction models categorized by field age, reservoir strata, and field size. The results revealed three distinct stages of reserve growth: (1) rapid growth (1–10&#xa0;years post-discovery), characterized by significant increases in reserves; (2) stable growth (10–20&#xa0;years), growth slowed but remained consistent; and (3) slower growth (beyond 20&#xa0;years), reserve expansion continued, though at a diminished rate. It is noteworthy that fields older than 20&#xa0;years still demonstrated substantial reserve growth, particularly those with Neogene and Paleogene reservoirs, which exhibited the highest increments. Additionally, large fields tended to experience significantly higher growth rates compared to medium and small fields. The model projects that by 2030, the cumulative recoverable reserves in the Bohai Sea will reach between 1.29 and 1.41 billion tons, with an annual growth rate of 35.5 million tons from 2024 to 2030. Key drivers of this growth include Neogene fields, medium-sized fields, and fields younger than 20&#xa0;years. Development factors such as increased drilling activity, enhanced oil recovery methods, and technological advancements will play pivotal roles in maximizing growth, especially for older fields with complex structures, lower reservoir quality, or large sizes, which retain significant untapped potential. These findings provide valuable quantitative insights for optimizing exploration strategies and development planning in the Bohai Bay Basin, guiding future exploration and resource management efforts.</p>

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Reserve Growth Modeling and Prediction in Oil Fields of the Bohai Bay Basin, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月15日

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  • Jiang Dexin,
  • Du Xiaofeng,
  • Liu Shixiang,
  • Li Chunrong,
  • Wu Yunfei,
  • Li Yican,
  • Yang Tianbo,
  • Li Fanyi

摘要

In mature regions, reserve growth is primarily driven by new field discoveries and expansions in existing fields, with the latter being the dominant contributor. As exploration efforts intensify in the Bohai Bay Basin, it becomes crucial to conduct a comprehensive analysis of reserve growth patterns and trends within established fields. Such analysis is vital for assessing future growth potential and formulating effective reserves planning and exploration strategies. This study focused specifically on offshore oilfields in the Bohai Bay Basin. A modified Arrington model was applied to data from 97 fields discovered between 1979 and 2023 to develop reserve growth prediction models categorized by field age, reservoir strata, and field size. The results revealed three distinct stages of reserve growth: (1) rapid growth (1–10 years post-discovery), characterized by significant increases in reserves; (2) stable growth (10–20 years), growth slowed but remained consistent; and (3) slower growth (beyond 20 years), reserve expansion continued, though at a diminished rate. It is noteworthy that fields older than 20 years still demonstrated substantial reserve growth, particularly those with Neogene and Paleogene reservoirs, which exhibited the highest increments. Additionally, large fields tended to experience significantly higher growth rates compared to medium and small fields. The model projects that by 2030, the cumulative recoverable reserves in the Bohai Sea will reach between 1.29 and 1.41 billion tons, with an annual growth rate of 35.5 million tons from 2024 to 2030. Key drivers of this growth include Neogene fields, medium-sized fields, and fields younger than 20 years. Development factors such as increased drilling activity, enhanced oil recovery methods, and technological advancements will play pivotal roles in maximizing growth, especially for older fields with complex structures, lower reservoir quality, or large sizes, which retain significant untapped potential. These findings provide valuable quantitative insights for optimizing exploration strategies and development planning in the Bohai Bay Basin, guiding future exploration and resource management efforts.