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<p>Urban greening is a global strategic priority for promoting sustainability and resilience. While urban forestry strategies often target ambitious tree coverage (TC) goals, they frequently lack the resources and knowledge to effectively guides their realization. Taking the metropolitan area of Orlando, United States, as a case study, this research examines 2013–2021 TC dynamics and their varying impacts on thermal comfort and associated socioeconomic changes to provide unique insights into urban TC goals. Built on biennial sub-meter tree maps, Orlando experienced a net TC decline from 44.79% to 41.06%, alongside exacerbating TC inequities: ‘tree-rich’ census tracts gained canopy while ‘tree-poor’ areas suffered further loss. Notably, a 40% TC at tract level emerged as a benchmark for TC stability. Leveraging quality-controlled, crowd-sourced weather stations, spatial comparisons suggest that TC provides linear summer cooling of up to 1.1&#xa0;°C. However, temporal TC changes suggest more complex local effects. Even minor TC fluctuations (&lt; 5%) can show up to 1.0&#xa0;°C changes locally, and cooling is not a guaranteed outcome of local TC growth. This local effect is exacerbated during heat waves. The study also unveils household income has very weak correlation with TC changes. Instead, rapid population growth is a primary driver for a per capita loss of 119&#xa0;m² in TC along with overall tree canopy loss. These findings underscore the needs for consistent monitoring and quantitative assessments to manage regional TC goals, highlighting the challenges of balancing rapid development with sustainability. To maximize TC benefits, cities should move beyond aggregate targets toward microclimate-informed, goal-based planting strategies.</p>

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Insights into urban greening goals: assessing urban tree coverage dynamics and their microclimatic and socioeconomic implications beyond spatial patterns

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月16日

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  • Danlu Cai,
  • Leiqiu Hu,
  • Christopher K. Uejio,
  • Michael Hess

摘要

Urban greening is a global strategic priority for promoting sustainability and resilience. While urban forestry strategies often target ambitious tree coverage (TC) goals, they frequently lack the resources and knowledge to effectively guides their realization. Taking the metropolitan area of Orlando, United States, as a case study, this research examines 2013–2021 TC dynamics and their varying impacts on thermal comfort and associated socioeconomic changes to provide unique insights into urban TC goals. Built on biennial sub-meter tree maps, Orlando experienced a net TC decline from 44.79% to 41.06%, alongside exacerbating TC inequities: ‘tree-rich’ census tracts gained canopy while ‘tree-poor’ areas suffered further loss. Notably, a 40% TC at tract level emerged as a benchmark for TC stability. Leveraging quality-controlled, crowd-sourced weather stations, spatial comparisons suggest that TC provides linear summer cooling of up to 1.1 °C. However, temporal TC changes suggest more complex local effects. Even minor TC fluctuations (< 5%) can show up to 1.0 °C changes locally, and cooling is not a guaranteed outcome of local TC growth. This local effect is exacerbated during heat waves. The study also unveils household income has very weak correlation with TC changes. Instead, rapid population growth is a primary driver for a per capita loss of 119 m² in TC along with overall tree canopy loss. These findings underscore the needs for consistent monitoring and quantitative assessments to manage regional TC goals, highlighting the challenges of balancing rapid development with sustainability. To maximize TC benefits, cities should move beyond aggregate targets toward microclimate-informed, goal-based planting strategies.