Scholarlink

<p>Brazil ranks among the highest emitters of greenhouse gases (GHG) globally, which emphasizes the relevance of its contribution to the Paris Agreement goals. This study analyzes trends in gross GHG emissions across Brazil from 2000 to 2023, aggregated by region and economic sector, to assess the country’s performance regarding emissions over recent decades. The historical emissions data, expressed in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO<sub>2</sub>-eq), were sourced from the System for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions (SEEG), an initiative created by a Brazilian NGO. Data analysis was conducted using R (version 4.4.1) and RStudio, focusing on the Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope methods applied to the 27 Brazilian states. Our findings indicate that only 1 state demonstrated a reduction throughout 2000 to 2023; 44% of the states exhibited positive trends that were statistically significant (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05). At the national level, the <i>energy</i> sector accounted for the most substantial increase in emissions, averaging 6.94 MtCO<sub>2</sub>-eq per year. Notably, Amazonas state, situated entirely within the Amazon biome, reported the highest state-level trend, primarily driven by emissions from <i>land use change and forests</i>, amounting to 3.14 MtCO<sub>2</sub>-eq per year. Furthermore, 60% of the states surpassed the global per capita emissions average, which equals 6.56 tCO<sub>2</sub>-eq/year. Complementary time-series modelling using ARIMA identified non-stationary dynamics in the Center-West and Southeast, quantifying the high forecast uncertainty in deforestation-prone regions compared to the stability of the South. The aggregated national BAU scenario projects total emissions of 1.58 GtCO<sub>2</sub>-eq in 2035 for the most optimistic boundary, which remains significantly above the mitigation levels required by the NDC, suggesting that the current trajectory is insufficient to meet the proposed commitments. These results suggest the urgent need for more robust climate action strategies for Brazil to align with the objectives outlined in the Paris Agreement.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Rising GHG emissions in Brazil: unpacking regional trends from 2000 to 2023 and the urgent call for climate action

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月22日

查看全文
  • Lívia Capanema da Paz Nascimento,
  • Marcelo Vieira da Silva Filho

摘要

Brazil ranks among the highest emitters of greenhouse gases (GHG) globally, which emphasizes the relevance of its contribution to the Paris Agreement goals. This study analyzes trends in gross GHG emissions across Brazil from 2000 to 2023, aggregated by region and economic sector, to assess the country’s performance regarding emissions over recent decades. The historical emissions data, expressed in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq), were sourced from the System for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions (SEEG), an initiative created by a Brazilian NGO. Data analysis was conducted using R (version 4.4.1) and RStudio, focusing on the Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope methods applied to the 27 Brazilian states. Our findings indicate that only 1 state demonstrated a reduction throughout 2000 to 2023; 44% of the states exhibited positive trends that were statistically significant (p < 0.05). At the national level, the energy sector accounted for the most substantial increase in emissions, averaging 6.94 MtCO2-eq per year. Notably, Amazonas state, situated entirely within the Amazon biome, reported the highest state-level trend, primarily driven by emissions from land use change and forests, amounting to 3.14 MtCO2-eq per year. Furthermore, 60% of the states surpassed the global per capita emissions average, which equals 6.56 tCO2-eq/year. Complementary time-series modelling using ARIMA identified non-stationary dynamics in the Center-West and Southeast, quantifying the high forecast uncertainty in deforestation-prone regions compared to the stability of the South. The aggregated national BAU scenario projects total emissions of 1.58 GtCO2-eq in 2035 for the most optimistic boundary, which remains significantly above the mitigation levels required by the NDC, suggesting that the current trajectory is insufficient to meet the proposed commitments. These results suggest the urgent need for more robust climate action strategies for Brazil to align with the objectives outlined in the Paris Agreement.