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<p>Green finance is increasingly viewed as a key instrument for achieving low-carbon development, yet its empirical effectiveness remains underexplored. This study assesses the impact of China’s Green Financial Reform and Innovation Pilot Zones (GFRIPZ) on regional low-carbon development. Using province-level panel data from 2011 to 2020 and a synthetic control method, we construct counterfactual scenarios to identify causal policy effects. The results show that GFRIPZ implementation significantly enhances low-carbon development performance. This improvement is driven by a transition toward cleaner production and more efficient allocation of financial resources to low-carbon sectors. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that policy effects vary with regional economic development, industrial structure, financial maturity, and environmental capacity. These findings provide robust evidence that financial reform can serve as an effective climate mitigation strategy and offer policy implications for developing economies seeking sustainable growth pathways.</p>

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Assessing the low-carbon development effects of green finance based on the synthetic control method

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月15日

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  • Qiyuan Li

摘要

Green finance is increasingly viewed as a key instrument for achieving low-carbon development, yet its empirical effectiveness remains underexplored. This study assesses the impact of China’s Green Financial Reform and Innovation Pilot Zones (GFRIPZ) on regional low-carbon development. Using province-level panel data from 2011 to 2020 and a synthetic control method, we construct counterfactual scenarios to identify causal policy effects. The results show that GFRIPZ implementation significantly enhances low-carbon development performance. This improvement is driven by a transition toward cleaner production and more efficient allocation of financial resources to low-carbon sectors. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that policy effects vary with regional economic development, industrial structure, financial maturity, and environmental capacity. These findings provide robust evidence that financial reform can serve as an effective climate mitigation strategy and offer policy implications for developing economies seeking sustainable growth pathways.