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<p>Russia has committed to carbon neutrality by 2060. However, its new nationally determined contribution (NDC) commits to keeping net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at 65–67% relative to the 1990 level, which effectively means doubling net GHG emissions from the 2023 level, as newly assessed in the Russian inventory. Decarbonization of the power sector is viewed as the key mitigation strategy. This paper assesses how “green” Russia’s electricity generation is today; identifies post-2000 trends in the carbon intensity of Russian power generation; discusses the results of carbon intensity benchmarking for Russian gas-and coal-fired thermal power plants (TPP); and proposes new metrics for evaluating fuel-cycle carbon intensity of electricity, including the “Russian nesting doll” scheme. Finally, it compares Russian power sector carbon intensity pathways proposed to 2060 and concludes that Russian power generation can be classified as “yellow” rather than “green” under the traffic-light color coding. In recent years, Russia has shown little progress toward greener electricity, and, if the sector follows the official pathways, by 2050–2060 it may become one of the “reddest”—or even the most carbon intensive—in the world.</p>

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How “green” is electricity generation in Russia and why can it gradually go “red”?

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月11日

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  • Igor Bashmakov

摘要

Russia has committed to carbon neutrality by 2060. However, its new nationally determined contribution (NDC) commits to keeping net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at 65–67% relative to the 1990 level, which effectively means doubling net GHG emissions from the 2023 level, as newly assessed in the Russian inventory. Decarbonization of the power sector is viewed as the key mitigation strategy. This paper assesses how “green” Russia’s electricity generation is today; identifies post-2000 trends in the carbon intensity of Russian power generation; discusses the results of carbon intensity benchmarking for Russian gas-and coal-fired thermal power plants (TPP); and proposes new metrics for evaluating fuel-cycle carbon intensity of electricity, including the “Russian nesting doll” scheme. Finally, it compares Russian power sector carbon intensity pathways proposed to 2060 and concludes that Russian power generation can be classified as “yellow” rather than “green” under the traffic-light color coding. In recent years, Russia has shown little progress toward greener electricity, and, if the sector follows the official pathways, by 2050–2060 it may become one of the “reddest”—or even the most carbon intensive—in the world.