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<p>Under the influence of climate change and urbanization, land use types change frequently in urban agglomerations (UAs), resulting in an overall imbalance between supply and demand of carbon sequestration service (CS). This constrains the enhancement of human well-being and the sustainable development of UAs. To address these challenges, this study used SD-PLUS model to simulate land use changes in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei UA under three SSP-RCP scenarios for 2030 and 2050, quantified CS supply-demand relationship, and analyzed its responses to the landscape pattern (LP). The results indicate that the reduction in cropland and the increase in construction land are the primary manifestations of future land use changes. Carbon stocks exhibit a declining trend across all scenarios. Relative to 2020, a reduction in supply-demand deficit areas occurs only in 2050 under the SSP126 scenario. Considering the spatial distribution of areas affected by LP indices and their differential impacts on CS supply–demand ratio, multi-tiered integrated land management strategies, together with the strict implementation of emission reduction policies, are required to achieve a dynamic balance between social demand and ecological carrying capacity. This study provides insights for land use planning in UAs that aim to promote ecological restoration and economic development in parallel.</p>

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Carbon sequestration service supply–demand dynamics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration: implications from future SSP–RCP scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月14日

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  • Mengqi Zhao,
  • Ziyao Wang,
  • Liang Li

摘要

Under the influence of climate change and urbanization, land use types change frequently in urban agglomerations (UAs), resulting in an overall imbalance between supply and demand of carbon sequestration service (CS). This constrains the enhancement of human well-being and the sustainable development of UAs. To address these challenges, this study used SD-PLUS model to simulate land use changes in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei UA under three SSP-RCP scenarios for 2030 and 2050, quantified CS supply-demand relationship, and analyzed its responses to the landscape pattern (LP). The results indicate that the reduction in cropland and the increase in construction land are the primary manifestations of future land use changes. Carbon stocks exhibit a declining trend across all scenarios. Relative to 2020, a reduction in supply-demand deficit areas occurs only in 2050 under the SSP126 scenario. Considering the spatial distribution of areas affected by LP indices and their differential impacts on CS supply–demand ratio, multi-tiered integrated land management strategies, together with the strict implementation of emission reduction policies, are required to achieve a dynamic balance between social demand and ecological carrying capacity. This study provides insights for land use planning in UAs that aim to promote ecological restoration and economic development in parallel.