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<p>Whole-rock geochemical data have been utilized to construct intelligent discriminant models for predicting the magmatic fertility of porphyry systems. However, most studies focus on subduction-related systems, with little research on collision-related ones. Moreover, the key geochemical controls on fertility under distinct tectonic regimes remain unclear. The Tibetan Plateau, which records the full geodynamic evolution from Tethyan subduction to continental collision, hosts numerous porphyry deposits formed in diverse settings, providing an ideal natural laboratory. Here, we constructed predictive models of magmatic fertility using random forest, eXtreme gradient boosting, and support vector machine algorithms, applicable across the entire plateau. These models simultaneously encompass both subduction-related and collision-related porphyry systems, and successfully predict magmatic fertility records of the Tibetan Plateau since the Jurassic. Furthermore, by integrating machine learning feature importance analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, we identified that the features most strongly associated with fertile magmas across the plateau’s porphyry systems are high SiO<sub>2</sub>, K<sub>2</sub>O, and Na<sub>2</sub>O, coupled with low TiO<sub>2</sub>, MgO, and MnO. Further analysis focusing exclusively on subduction-related porphyry systems revealed that Al<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub>, high SiO<sub>2</sub>, and K<sub>2</sub>O, along with low total Fe, MgO, and Na<sub>2</sub>O, are the most critical indicators of fertile magmas. In contrast, for collision-related systems, Al<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub>, K<sub>2</sub>O, and high SiO<sub>2</sub>, combined with low MnO, Tb, and Rb, emerge as the most influential features. These results suggest that, regardless of tectonic setting, magmas that have undergone prolonged intracrustal differentiation processes exhibit higher metallogenic potential. Additionally, compared to barren magmas, fertile magmas generally display stronger signatures of crust–mantle magma mixing.</p>

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Geochemical Controls on Magmatic Fertility in the Tibetan Plateau: Insights from Machine Learning Models Across Collision and Subduction Regimes

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月5日

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  • Peng Zhang,
  • Zhenjie Zhang,
  • Yuanzhi Zhou,
  • Jie Yang,
  • Molei Zhao,
  • Qiuming Cheng

摘要

Whole-rock geochemical data have been utilized to construct intelligent discriminant models for predicting the magmatic fertility of porphyry systems. However, most studies focus on subduction-related systems, with little research on collision-related ones. Moreover, the key geochemical controls on fertility under distinct tectonic regimes remain unclear. The Tibetan Plateau, which records the full geodynamic evolution from Tethyan subduction to continental collision, hosts numerous porphyry deposits formed in diverse settings, providing an ideal natural laboratory. Here, we constructed predictive models of magmatic fertility using random forest, eXtreme gradient boosting, and support vector machine algorithms, applicable across the entire plateau. These models simultaneously encompass both subduction-related and collision-related porphyry systems, and successfully predict magmatic fertility records of the Tibetan Plateau since the Jurassic. Furthermore, by integrating machine learning feature importance analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, we identified that the features most strongly associated with fertile magmas across the plateau’s porphyry systems are high SiO2, K2O, and Na2O, coupled with low TiO2, MgO, and MnO. Further analysis focusing exclusively on subduction-related porphyry systems revealed that Al2O3, high SiO2, and K2O, along with low total Fe, MgO, and Na2O, are the most critical indicators of fertile magmas. In contrast, for collision-related systems, Al2O3, K2O, and high SiO2, combined with low MnO, Tb, and Rb, emerge as the most influential features. These results suggest that, regardless of tectonic setting, magmas that have undergone prolonged intracrustal differentiation processes exhibit higher metallogenic potential. Additionally, compared to barren magmas, fertile magmas generally display stronger signatures of crust–mantle magma mixing.