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<p>Ensuring global food security is a major challenge in the current era, exacerbated by climate change and population growth. In many parts of the world, fishing provides an alternative to alleviate the pressure on crop and livestock production. However, the fishing industry is also highly vulnerable to impacts of climate change, particularly on the ocean dynamics near coastlines where major fishing grounds are located. Fish stocks depend heavily on the abundance of nutrients in the environment, but the relationship between the availability of nutrients and the environment is complex and nonlinear, making it difficult to evaluate the impact of climate change on fish stocks. This study employs a copula-based modeling approach to assess the intricate relationships between sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration in the Strait of Gibraltar which serve as crucial indicators of small pelagic organism abundance. The analysis utilizes satellite data from MODISA and climate hindcast models, covering the March-April-May (MAM) and September-October-November (SON) seasons to account for seasonal variability. First, the copulas and the marginal distributions are fitted and assessed from the observational SST and Chl-a data using various goodness-of-fit tests across different seasons, highlighting the high seasonal variability. The same methodology is then applied to hindcast models, and the simulation results are bias-corrected using a multivariate bias correction, improving the overall quality of the simulation compared to historical observations. The obtained results show that parametric copulas are successfully constructed, exhibiting robust agreement in the cumulative distribution functions. However, hindcast models demonstrate limitations in capturing the SST–Chl-a relationship during specific seasons, especially during the SON season, where a positive copula is observed. The present study lays the groundwork for addressing the impact of climate change on fisheries, for which SST and Chl-a concentrations in the region can provide valuable insights into long-term oceanic changes.</p>

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Copula-based Modeling of Sea Surface Temperature and Chlorophyll-a Distributions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月27日

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  • Amina Ben Salah,
  • Mofdi El Amrani,
  • Bouchra Zellou,
  • Mohammed Seaid,
  • Nabil El Mocayd

摘要

Ensuring global food security is a major challenge in the current era, exacerbated by climate change and population growth. In many parts of the world, fishing provides an alternative to alleviate the pressure on crop and livestock production. However, the fishing industry is also highly vulnerable to impacts of climate change, particularly on the ocean dynamics near coastlines where major fishing grounds are located. Fish stocks depend heavily on the abundance of nutrients in the environment, but the relationship between the availability of nutrients and the environment is complex and nonlinear, making it difficult to evaluate the impact of climate change on fish stocks. This study employs a copula-based modeling approach to assess the intricate relationships between sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration in the Strait of Gibraltar which serve as crucial indicators of small pelagic organism abundance. The analysis utilizes satellite data from MODISA and climate hindcast models, covering the March-April-May (MAM) and September-October-November (SON) seasons to account for seasonal variability. First, the copulas and the marginal distributions are fitted and assessed from the observational SST and Chl-a data using various goodness-of-fit tests across different seasons, highlighting the high seasonal variability. The same methodology is then applied to hindcast models, and the simulation results are bias-corrected using a multivariate bias correction, improving the overall quality of the simulation compared to historical observations. The obtained results show that parametric copulas are successfully constructed, exhibiting robust agreement in the cumulative distribution functions. However, hindcast models demonstrate limitations in capturing the SST–Chl-a relationship during specific seasons, especially during the SON season, where a positive copula is observed. The present study lays the groundwork for addressing the impact of climate change on fisheries, for which SST and Chl-a concentrations in the region can provide valuable insights into long-term oceanic changes.