‘Might’ counterfactuals

The epistemic thesis is the thesis that a ‘might’ counterfactual like (1) has the same meaning as (2).

(1)   If Matt had gone to the parade, David might have gone to the parade.

(2)   Maybe, if Matt had gone to the parade, David would have gone to the parade.

In this paper, I give a compositional semantics for ‘might’ counterfactuals that predicts the epistemic thesis. I offer a new theory of the counterfactual interpretation of the modal ‘might’ — the interpretation it receives in (1) — and I show that, when coupled with a plausible semantics for ‘if’ clauses, my theory validates the epistemic thesis.