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<p>To evaluate the barrier effect of fractured granite in deep geological repositories, we developed a dual continuum model (DCM) framework to simulate radionuclide migration behavior. The influences of parameters in the DCM were quantitatively analyzed through multiscenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. The results revealed that the DCM characterized the preferential pathways of fracture networks well for nuclide migration. The sensitivity analysis revealed that the sorption coefficient, fracture permeability, and matrix porosity were the factors with the greatest influence on the maximum migration distance. These findings provide a hydrogeological reference for assessing the effectiveness of natural barriers at candidate disposal sites.</p>

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Modeling the spatiotemporal migration of radionuclides in fractured media: insights from parameter sensitivity analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月13日

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  • Lei Tian,
  • Litang Hu,
  • Xiaoyuan Cao,
  • Shiqi Huang,
  • Hongbo Liu,
  • Jianchong Sun

摘要

To evaluate the barrier effect of fractured granite in deep geological repositories, we developed a dual continuum model (DCM) framework to simulate radionuclide migration behavior. The influences of parameters in the DCM were quantitatively analyzed through multiscenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. The results revealed that the DCM characterized the preferential pathways of fracture networks well for nuclide migration. The sensitivity analysis revealed that the sorption coefficient, fracture permeability, and matrix porosity were the factors with the greatest influence on the maximum migration distance. These findings provide a hydrogeological reference for assessing the effectiveness of natural barriers at candidate disposal sites.