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<p>This study constructs a two-factor technology adoption model that integrates uncertainty in technology learning by incorporating learning-by-doing (LBD) for cumulative experience and learning-by-searching (LBS) for research and development (R&amp;D) investment. It uses the model to focus on the impact of uncertainty in the two types of technology learning (LBD and LBS) on the diffusion trend of emerging technologies. The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) Factors such as high learning rates, low initial investment costs, high carbon taxes, low uncertainty in learning rates, high risk tolerance, and high demand may promote the adoption and widespread deployment of emerging energy technologies. (2) The sensitivity of technology diffusion to changes in technology learning rates is highly non-linear, particularly when influenced by the LBD learning effect. This indicates that the tendency toward technology diffusion is affected more by cumulative experience than by R&amp;D investment. (3) Accumulated experience is more sensitive to uncertainty than R&amp;D investment.</p>

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The impact of cumulative experience and R&D investment on technological change amid uncertainty in technological learning

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月7日

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  • Shiguo Zhou,
  • Yaru Zhang

摘要

This study constructs a two-factor technology adoption model that integrates uncertainty in technology learning by incorporating learning-by-doing (LBD) for cumulative experience and learning-by-searching (LBS) for research and development (R&D) investment. It uses the model to focus on the impact of uncertainty in the two types of technology learning (LBD and LBS) on the diffusion trend of emerging technologies. The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) Factors such as high learning rates, low initial investment costs, high carbon taxes, low uncertainty in learning rates, high risk tolerance, and high demand may promote the adoption and widespread deployment of emerging energy technologies. (2) The sensitivity of technology diffusion to changes in technology learning rates is highly non-linear, particularly when influenced by the LBD learning effect. This indicates that the tendency toward technology diffusion is affected more by cumulative experience than by R&D investment. (3) Accumulated experience is more sensitive to uncertainty than R&D investment.