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<p>This study presents a deterministic seismic hazard analysis for Bihar, a state in eastern India with rapidly growing urban infrastructure and high seismic vulnerability due to its proximity to the Himalayas. The region has already experienced catastrophic earthquakes, including the 1934 Bihar–Nepal (Mw 8.1) and the 2015 Nepal (Mw 7.8) events. To evaluate seismic risk, a seismotectonic map was prepared considering regional tectonics and rupture characteristics, defining 73 faults, 57 lineaments, and 7 shear zones within the control region. Maximum possible magnitudes were estimated and assigned to each linear source based on rupture parameters and deterministic scaling relations. Six region-specific ground motion prediction equations, applicable to Himalayan and Indo-Gangetic settings, were carefully selected, and their weights in the logic tree framework were assigned using the log-likelihood method to account for epistemic uncertainty. Seismic hazard maps for Bihar were generated at bedrock level under three scenarios with varying focal depths. The results indicate significant geographic variation in peak ground acceleration, ranging from 0.47 to 0.67&#xa0;g in northern Bihar and 0.05 to 0.15&#xa0;g in southern Bihar. Districts such as Sitamarhi, Madhubani, and Supaul, located near the Himalayan thrust faults, face higher seismic risk, while Purnia and Kishanganj are vulnerable due to their proximity to the Purnia–Everest lineament. These findings provide important inputs for earthquake-resistant structural design, urban planning, and seismic microzonation in Bihar.</p>

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Deterministic seismic hazard assessment of Bihar, India: integrating a logic-tree framework with validation of ground motion prediction equations against regional seismicity

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月11日

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  • Rohit Singh Patel,
  • Ajay Kumar Sinha

摘要

This study presents a deterministic seismic hazard analysis for Bihar, a state in eastern India with rapidly growing urban infrastructure and high seismic vulnerability due to its proximity to the Himalayas. The region has already experienced catastrophic earthquakes, including the 1934 Bihar–Nepal (Mw 8.1) and the 2015 Nepal (Mw 7.8) events. To evaluate seismic risk, a seismotectonic map was prepared considering regional tectonics and rupture characteristics, defining 73 faults, 57 lineaments, and 7 shear zones within the control region. Maximum possible magnitudes were estimated and assigned to each linear source based on rupture parameters and deterministic scaling relations. Six region-specific ground motion prediction equations, applicable to Himalayan and Indo-Gangetic settings, were carefully selected, and their weights in the logic tree framework were assigned using the log-likelihood method to account for epistemic uncertainty. Seismic hazard maps for Bihar were generated at bedrock level under three scenarios with varying focal depths. The results indicate significant geographic variation in peak ground acceleration, ranging from 0.47 to 0.67 g in northern Bihar and 0.05 to 0.15 g in southern Bihar. Districts such as Sitamarhi, Madhubani, and Supaul, located near the Himalayan thrust faults, face higher seismic risk, while Purnia and Kishanganj are vulnerable due to their proximity to the Purnia–Everest lineament. These findings provide important inputs for earthquake-resistant structural design, urban planning, and seismic microzonation in Bihar.