Scholarlink

<p>This study applied an earthquake nowcasting approach to assess the current stage of the seismic cycle along three major right-lateral strike-slip faults: the Nayband, Gowk, and Bam faults, located on the western edge of the Lut Block in southeastern Iran. Seismic catalogs spanning 1&#xa0;January&#xa0;1963 to 31&#xa0;March&#xa0;2025 were analyzed within 250&#xa0;km, 300&#xa0;km, and 350&#xa0;km radii around each fault, with all magnitude scales converted to moment magnitude and completeness thresholds determined via the maximum‐curvature method. Natural time counts were computed for two upper magnitude thresholds (<i>M</i><sub><i>λ</i></sub> = 5.5 and 6.0) and modeled using the Pearson distribution system. Among the candidate distributions, Pearson Type&#xa0;VI consistently provided the best fit across all eighteen scenarios, outperforming Gamma, Weibull, and Exponential models in log-likelihood comparisons. The Earthquake Potential Scores (EPS), calculated from the fitted Type VI cumulative distributions, show that the Gowk fault within a 250&#xa0;km radius has progressed furthest through its seismic cycle. EPS values exceed 97% for <i>M</i><sub><i>λ</i></sub> = 5.5 at the Gowk center (Point 2), indicating that the present natural-time count is higher than in most historical cycles. EPS is a percentile-based indicator of cycle stage and does not constitute a calendar-time forecast of imminence.Nevertheless, elevated EPS motivates continued monitoring and preparedness for nearby population centers such as Kerman, Bam, and Rafsanjan. By comparison, the Nayband fault has lower EPS values, reflecting its past quiet behavior but highlighting the importance of ongoing monitoring. These findings demonstrate the utility of Pearson-based nowcasting for quantitative seismic hazard assessment and regional risk mitigation.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Determination of earthquake potential score for the western margin of the Lut Block, Iran, using the nowcasting method

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月29日

查看全文
  • Amir Hossein Shafiee,
  • Heidar Mesgar Asl,
  • Babak Samani

摘要

This study applied an earthquake nowcasting approach to assess the current stage of the seismic cycle along three major right-lateral strike-slip faults: the Nayband, Gowk, and Bam faults, located on the western edge of the Lut Block in southeastern Iran. Seismic catalogs spanning 1 January 1963 to 31 March 2025 were analyzed within 250 km, 300 km, and 350 km radii around each fault, with all magnitude scales converted to moment magnitude and completeness thresholds determined via the maximum‐curvature method. Natural time counts were computed for two upper magnitude thresholds (Mλ = 5.5 and 6.0) and modeled using the Pearson distribution system. Among the candidate distributions, Pearson Type VI consistently provided the best fit across all eighteen scenarios, outperforming Gamma, Weibull, and Exponential models in log-likelihood comparisons. The Earthquake Potential Scores (EPS), calculated from the fitted Type VI cumulative distributions, show that the Gowk fault within a 250 km radius has progressed furthest through its seismic cycle. EPS values exceed 97% for Mλ = 5.5 at the Gowk center (Point 2), indicating that the present natural-time count is higher than in most historical cycles. EPS is a percentile-based indicator of cycle stage and does not constitute a calendar-time forecast of imminence.Nevertheless, elevated EPS motivates continued monitoring and preparedness for nearby population centers such as Kerman, Bam, and Rafsanjan. By comparison, the Nayband fault has lower EPS values, reflecting its past quiet behavior but highlighting the importance of ongoing monitoring. These findings demonstrate the utility of Pearson-based nowcasting for quantitative seismic hazard assessment and regional risk mitigation.