Scholarlink

<p>Tsunamis, one of the most devastating natural disasters on Earth, pose a&#xa0;substantial hazard and risk&#xa0;to coastal infrastructure, human life and the built environment. The Indo-Pacific region is highly vulnerable to tsunamis, with over 83% of global occurrences documented in this area, as determined from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) historical tsunami database. Therefore, tsunami hazard analysis and forecasting are essential for safeguarding people and assets in this region. However, a study on the comprehensive tsunami potential requires further detailed investigation. For this purpose, the Indo-Pacific region (60<sup>0</sup>N to 60<sup>0</sup>S and 30<sup>0</sup>E to180<sup>0</sup>E) was divided into eight tsunamigenic zones based on tsunamicity, physiography, and seismotectonics. Tsunamigenic earthquake data from 1737 to 2022 were analyzed using stochastic tools and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithms to precisely forecast the time, magnitude, and location of impending tsunamigenic earthquakes. This study indicates that Zones 5 (Tohoku Seismic Zone), 7 (Banda Arc), and 8 (Solomon Subduction Zone) are highly vulnerable to tsunami occurrence between periods 2030–2033 (M<sub>W</sub> 8), 2030–2034 (M<sub>W</sub> 7) and 2031–2034 (M<sub>W</sub> 8.2), respectively. At the same time, Zones 1 (Sumatra Subduction Zone), 4 (Kamchatka Trench), and 6 (Visayas Fault Zone) might become vulnerable in the long run between periods 2051–2064 (M<sub>W</sub> 8.9—M<sub>W</sub> 9.3), 2062–2081 (M<sub>W</sub> 7.3) and 2077–2120 (M<sub>W</sub> 7.7), respectively. The study advocates that out of eight tsunamigenic zones considered, Zone 1 might experience the strongest tsunamigenic earthquake (8.9&#xa0;MW – 9.3&#xa0;MW) by the mid-century (2051–2064). The forecast was validated by back-testing the ANN model considering the last five events that had already occurred in each zone. The case study of the recent significant tsunamigenic earthquake events—the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, and the recent Japan earthquake of January 01, 2024–have also been validated. Additionally, the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model and Coulomb stress change studies have been applied to improve location accuracy.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Tsunami hazard forecasting in the Indo-Pacific Region: a paradigm shift to physics-based validation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月5日

查看全文
  • Nazeel Sabah,
  • Daya Shanker

摘要

Tsunamis, one of the most devastating natural disasters on Earth, pose a substantial hazard and risk to coastal infrastructure, human life and the built environment. The Indo-Pacific region is highly vulnerable to tsunamis, with over 83% of global occurrences documented in this area, as determined from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) historical tsunami database. Therefore, tsunami hazard analysis and forecasting are essential for safeguarding people and assets in this region. However, a study on the comprehensive tsunami potential requires further detailed investigation. For this purpose, the Indo-Pacific region (600N to 600S and 300E to1800E) was divided into eight tsunamigenic zones based on tsunamicity, physiography, and seismotectonics. Tsunamigenic earthquake data from 1737 to 2022 were analyzed using stochastic tools and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithms to precisely forecast the time, magnitude, and location of impending tsunamigenic earthquakes. This study indicates that Zones 5 (Tohoku Seismic Zone), 7 (Banda Arc), and 8 (Solomon Subduction Zone) are highly vulnerable to tsunami occurrence between periods 2030–2033 (MW 8), 2030–2034 (MW 7) and 2031–2034 (MW 8.2), respectively. At the same time, Zones 1 (Sumatra Subduction Zone), 4 (Kamchatka Trench), and 6 (Visayas Fault Zone) might become vulnerable in the long run between periods 2051–2064 (MW 8.9—MW 9.3), 2062–2081 (MW 7.3) and 2077–2120 (MW 7.7), respectively. The study advocates that out of eight tsunamigenic zones considered, Zone 1 might experience the strongest tsunamigenic earthquake (8.9 MW – 9.3 MW) by the mid-century (2051–2064). The forecast was validated by back-testing the ANN model considering the last five events that had already occurred in each zone. The case study of the recent significant tsunamigenic earthquake events—the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, and the recent Japan earthquake of January 01, 2024–have also been validated. Additionally, the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model and Coulomb stress change studies have been applied to improve location accuracy.