Agreement Between Office-Based and Laboratory-Based Globorisk Models and their Prediction of Cardiovascular Diseases in Turkish Population: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Globorisk is a country-specific risk prediction model that estimates 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. This study aims to evaluate the agreement between different versions of Globorisk and their ability to predict CVD in a nationwide Turkish cohort. Baseline data from 5449 participants aged 40–74 were obtained from Türkiye Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors Survey 2011. Office- and laboratory-based Globorisk risk scores were calculated using age, gender, systolic blood pressure (SBP), current smoking status, body mass index (BMI), diabetes, and total cholesterol levels. Correlation and Bland–Altman analysis were employed to assess the agreement between 10-year risk scores. Multivariable logistic regression models were estimated with Globorisk variables to predict the presence of CVD over a 6-year follow-up period. Model calibration was performed. The study identified 515 incident CVD cases during the 6-year follow-up period. There was a strong positive correlation between 10-year Globorisk versions (r = 0.89). The limit of the agreement was narrower in males (− 6.11 to 6.89%) compared to females (− 7.01 to 7.73%). Age and systolic blood pressure were associated with 6-year CVD in both office- and laboratory-based models. The models showed similar discriminative performance (AUC: 0.68) and predictive accuracy (mean absolute error: 0.009) for 6-year CVD. Both Globorisk models were strongly correlated, had similar discrimination power and predictive accuracy. The office-based Globorisk can be used instead of the laboratory-based model, especially where resources are limited.