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<p>Antibiotic resistance in <i>Escherichia coli</i> (<i>E. coli</i>) poses a major public health threat. This study introduces a fractional-order differential equation model incorporating memory effects to analyze resistance and susceptibility dynamics in <i>E. coli</i> populations exposed to Ertapenem, Imipenem, and Meropenem, using real-world data from 2018 to 2023 from a hospital in Northern Cyprus. The model accounts for genetic mutations, horizontal gene transfer, and the decay of resistance. Results indicate a gradual increase in resistance, with higher fractional orders slowing growth rates. Basic reproduction number analysis identifies thresholds for resistance persistence or decline, suggesting that reducing mutation rates and enhancing decay factors can control resistance. Projections forecast an 800% rise in resistance cases by 2030 compared to 2018, underscoring the need for optimized antibiotic stewardship.</p>

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The role of fractional-order dynamics in understanding Escherichia coli resistance to carbapenem antibiotics

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月4日

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  • David Amilo,
  • Bilgen Kaymakamzade,
  • Emine Unal Evren,
  • Cemile Bagkur

摘要

Antibiotic resistance in Escherichia coli (E. coli) poses a major public health threat. This study introduces a fractional-order differential equation model incorporating memory effects to analyze resistance and susceptibility dynamics in E. coli populations exposed to Ertapenem, Imipenem, and Meropenem, using real-world data from 2018 to 2023 from a hospital in Northern Cyprus. The model accounts for genetic mutations, horizontal gene transfer, and the decay of resistance. Results indicate a gradual increase in resistance, with higher fractional orders slowing growth rates. Basic reproduction number analysis identifies thresholds for resistance persistence or decline, suggesting that reducing mutation rates and enhancing decay factors can control resistance. Projections forecast an 800% rise in resistance cases by 2030 compared to 2018, underscoring the need for optimized antibiotic stewardship.