<p>This article assesses the outcomes of international negotiations under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) for the prospects of achieving the 2030 and 2050 goals and targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. It analyzes CBD official documents and participant observations during the first and resumed session of the 16th Conference of the Parties (COP 16), which respectively took place in Cali, Colombia, in 2024 and Rome, Italy, in 2025. To what extent, we probe, do the negotiated outcomes of COP 16 represent meaningful progress toward the goals and targets of the Global Biodiversity Framework? We situate our analysis within the political economy of global biodiversity governance, as this context is essential for evaluating the outcomes of COP 16 and identifying productive ways forward. There were, we find, significant achievements, including the creation of a new subsidiary body for Indigenous and local peoples, new and more equitable financing, and additional technical and scientific support for implementation. Yet, we argue, progress remains too slow, incremental, and piecemeal to prevent widespread, irreversible biodiversity loss. Financing remains insufficient and inequitable. And corporate extraction and state policies continue to destroy biodiversity to spur growth. There is, moreover, uneven and unstable political support for the CBD, coupled with a persistent reluctance from some states and industry to take meaningful steps toward protecting biodiversity.</p>