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<p>We assessed the effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of <i>Piaractus brachypomus</i> Cuvier (1818), a species of economic interest in the Amazon basin, using ecological niche models. We employed a set of five algorithms under the ensemble forecasting approach to predict the geographic distribution of the species in the present and in the future considering different carbon emission scenarios. The projections indicate that a large portion of the Amazon basin presents suitable areas for <i>P. brachypomus</i>, with moderate reduction of these areas in the near future. By 2090, under the pessimistic scenario, losses intensify, and the most drastic contractions are projected for the Branco, Japurá, Mamoré, Negro, and Purus sub-basins, while by the end of the century, suitable areas are predicted to occur mainly in rivers of the southwestern and central Amazon regions. The gain of suitable areas was smaller compared to the proportion of stable areas and losses. These results provide valuable information for the development of effective conservation plans with the intent of ensuring the ecological and economic benefits that <i>P. brachypomus</i> provides in the Amazon basin.</p>

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The effects of climate change on the potential distribution of a frugivorous fish in the Amazon basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月17日

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  • Ana Carolina Farias de Oliveira,
  • Felipe Pacheco Spirlandelli,
  • Vitor Henrique Mistro Seripieri,
  • André Luiz Ramos Lino,
  • João Carlos Azevedo,
  • Katia Yasuko Yofukuji,
  • Beatriz Cristina de Paula Souza,
  • Vanessa Pontara,
  • Marcelo Leandro Bueno,
  • Luiz Fernando Esser,
  • Weferson Júnio da Graça,
  • José Hilário Delconte Ferreira,
  • Reginaldo Ré,
  • Dayani Bailly,
  • Valéria Flávia Batista-Silva

摘要

We assessed the effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of Piaractus brachypomus Cuvier (1818), a species of economic interest in the Amazon basin, using ecological niche models. We employed a set of five algorithms under the ensemble forecasting approach to predict the geographic distribution of the species in the present and in the future considering different carbon emission scenarios. The projections indicate that a large portion of the Amazon basin presents suitable areas for P. brachypomus, with moderate reduction of these areas in the near future. By 2090, under the pessimistic scenario, losses intensify, and the most drastic contractions are projected for the Branco, Japurá, Mamoré, Negro, and Purus sub-basins, while by the end of the century, suitable areas are predicted to occur mainly in rivers of the southwestern and central Amazon regions. The gain of suitable areas was smaller compared to the proportion of stable areas and losses. These results provide valuable information for the development of effective conservation plans with the intent of ensuring the ecological and economic benefits that P. brachypomus provides in the Amazon basin.