Differential climate change impacts on spatial distribution of two bartail flathead stocks in the yellow and bohai seas: a MaxEnt model-based prediction
摘要
Climate change-driven shifts in spatial distribution patterns can lead to mismatch between management strategies and resource dynamics, reducing management effectiveness. Local stocks occupy different spatial niches and face varying exploitation pressures, but it is unclear if climate change consistently affects their spatial patterns, especially with potential spatial isolation. This study uses species distribution models to investigate the differential responses of Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea stocks of Bartail Flathead to climate change. Results show that the Yellow Sea stock’s most suitable habitats are along the southern Shandong Peninsula and central and southern Yellow Sea, while the Bohai Sea stock’s most suitable habitats are near Laizhou Bay. Under future climate scenarios, the Yellow Sea stock’s suitable habitat is projected to expand northward, while the Bohai Sea stock’s habitat remains within the Bohai region. Our findings also emphasize that the simplest conservation approaches, such as protecting a single population as a unified entity, might not necessarily be sufficient or effective in preserving diversity, especially for geographical isolated species with widespread distribution. This study highlights the differences in responses and driving mechanisms of local stocks to climate change, offering insights for more effective resource management.