Potential areas of occurrence for an invasive copepod in Brazil: a species distribution model approach

Mesocyclops ogunnus (Copepoda, Cyclopoida), originally from Africa and Asia, is now invasive species in Brazilian freshwaters, raising concerns due to its capacity to colonize eutrophic lentic ecosystems. Their high reproduction and dispersal rates, coupled with the production of resistance eggs, pose a significant threat to the habitats of native species by potentially leading to niche overlap and displacement. Here, we used a comprehensive dataset, including GBIF records and a systematic literature review, to assess current suitable areas for the species in Brazil through a species distribution model approach. Our final dataset encompasses 136 data points for the native range in Africa and Asia and 238 data points for the invaded area in Brazil. The SDM’s models showed new potentially suitable areas for M. ogunnus colonization across the Paraná River Basin, the main watercourses of the Amazon River Basin, and the San Francisco River. These findings underscore the importance of predictive modeling in identifying potential areas of occurrence for M. ogunnus, providing a foundation for management strategies to mitigate its spread and ecological impact.