Calculation of Ice Thickness of 1% Exceedance Probability and Assessment of its Long-Term Variability at the Mouth of the Oka River

The ice situation around a hydraulic structure is the input data for the assessment of the ice loads and impacts on the structure. The design load on a bank-protection structure is determined from the level-ice thickness of given exceedance probability found by statistically processing field observations over the period of maximum ice loads, depending on the class of the structure. The thickness values of exceedance probability p = 1% were calculated. The long-term variability of ice thickness at the mouth of the Oka River was assessed to develop an upgrade project for the right-bank protection structures in Nizhny Novgorod to allow for the changing climate and the human impact on the riverbed.