A Novel Group Decision-Making Method Considering Bounded Confidence and Non-cooperative Behaviors Under Incomplete Information

Scientific and democratic decision-making mechanisms require integrating the collective wisdom of multidisciplinary decision-makers (DMs), while increasingly complex real-world decision environments pose additional challenges to the consensus reaching process (CRP). This paper focuses on studying multi-attribute group decision-making methods that incorporate DMs’ bounded confidence and non-cooperative behaviors under incomplete information. First, the paper utilizes reference risk to help DMs with missing evaluation information complete the missing values. In the feedback mechanism during CRP, the study measures DMs’ adjustment willingness based on bounded confidence and their social trust relationships, proposing an objective method for calculating feedback parameters. Subsequently, the paper identifies and manages non-cooperative behaviors from both evaluation information and trust relationship perspectives. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through a case study of hot dry rock development site selection. The results of the comparative analysis illustrate the feasibility and innovation of the consensus decision-making method proposed in this paper.