Future cultivation of cotton for industrial use: landscape cytogenetics and species distribution modeling

Two cultivated tetraploid cotton species, Gossypium hirsutum L. (AD1) and G. barbadense L. (AD2), are economically important plant species. The cytogenetic characteristics can be influenced by environmental and demographic factors. Analysis combining landscape genetics and species distribution modeling can determine the role of global and climatic variables in the genetic makeup of plant species and potentially suitable growing regions. The present study was conducted to gain insight into the spatial cytogenetic structure of cotton cultivars and to identify cytogenetic clines in a global context. For the landscape cytogenetic study, cytogenetic data from 109 genotypes including 61 cotton cultivars of tetraploid of Gossypium barbedense L., and G. hirsutum L were used. We conducted species distribution models (SDM) research of these species in response to current climate change and 2050 climate change. redundancy analysis (RDA) and random forest (RF) of cytogenetic data with geographic variables were performed. This study showed that the cytogenetic characteristics of the cultivars in different countries differ significantly in their meiotic chromosome pairing and chiasma frequency (P < 0.05). SDMs also showed that climatic variables related to temperature and precipitation are some of the key variables that can determine the cytogenetic structure and geographic distribution of cultivars around the world and that the suitable area for cultivation will be reduced in response to climate change. In conclusion, longitude, latitude, temperature, and precipitation are some of the key variables that can determine the cytogenetic structure and geographic distribution of cotton cultivars around the world.