Quantifying the effect of climate and socio-demographic factors on malaria transmission in the Northeast region of India using geospatial modelling
摘要
Malaria is a major public health concern in India's North-Eastern Region (NER). The region’s spatial differences in climate and socio-demographical status make it vulnerable to malaria. Thus, understanding the spatial dependence between malaria transmission and socio-demographic and climate risk factors is crucial for implementing effective control and prevention strategies. Hence, the present study analysed the potential impact of climate and socio-demographic factors on malaria incidence in the NER of India from 2011 to 2020. The Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) and Geographically Weighted Lasso (GWL) regression models were applied to predict local-level malaria incidence in the NER. The relationship between malaria incidence and socio-demographic and climate factors in the NER of India varies spatially from district to district. The GWL model, which effectively handled local multicollinearity, explained the spatial variation of R2: 83.45% at district level. In the NER, absolute humidity, wind speed, and cooking fuel (electricity) were found to be positively associated with malaria spatial transmission across districts. Risk factors such as cooking using crop residue, flooring, and roof material were negatively associated with malaria spatial transmission at district level. Meanwhile, houses with three dwelling rooms were found to have mixed associations. These findings highlight the significance of incorporating local level climate and socio-demographic factors into malaria mitigation strategies.