<p>Donald Trump built a large, committed political following and twice won the United States presidential election by utilizing a populist blend of personal grievances, politics-as-entertainment and polarizing rhetoric. His repeated candidacies and leadership of the Republican Party dramatically transformed that party as well as the opposing Democratic Party, reorienting American political discourse around Trump himself. Yet, the focus on Trump’s divisiveness overshadows the reality of an American electorate that had already become deeply polarized along geographic and demographic lines prior to 2016. Between Trump’s bookend elections in 2016 and 2024, shifts in county-level vote patterns indicated unexpected changes in both parties’ abilities to tap into demographics that had previously eluded them. Using a combination of random forest regression and k-means clustering, the author finds that Hispanic and White demographics, income levels, and educational attainment most heavily influenced geographic changes in the Republican and Democratic coalitions during the Age of Trump. Variables such as religious affiliation, Black population, median age and net migration rates were less significant. Due to the prevalence of continuities alongside changes, Trump-era voting shifts should be considered as readjustments to American electoral geography, rather than a complete realignment thereof.</p>

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Electoral readjustments of the Trump era: shifts in county-level voting patterns, 2016–2024

  • Kyle S. Davis

摘要

Donald Trump built a large, committed political following and twice won the United States presidential election by utilizing a populist blend of personal grievances, politics-as-entertainment and polarizing rhetoric. His repeated candidacies and leadership of the Republican Party dramatically transformed that party as well as the opposing Democratic Party, reorienting American political discourse around Trump himself. Yet, the focus on Trump’s divisiveness overshadows the reality of an American electorate that had already become deeply polarized along geographic and demographic lines prior to 2016. Between Trump’s bookend elections in 2016 and 2024, shifts in county-level vote patterns indicated unexpected changes in both parties’ abilities to tap into demographics that had previously eluded them. Using a combination of random forest regression and k-means clustering, the author finds that Hispanic and White demographics, income levels, and educational attainment most heavily influenced geographic changes in the Republican and Democratic coalitions during the Age of Trump. Variables such as religious affiliation, Black population, median age and net migration rates were less significant. Due to the prevalence of continuities alongside changes, Trump-era voting shifts should be considered as readjustments to American electoral geography, rather than a complete realignment thereof.