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<p>Shifting cultivation remains central to rural livelihoods in northern Sierra Leone but is increasingly constrained by climate variability and land-use intensification. This study integrates satellite-derived vegetation and fire indices with farmer perception surveys to assess climate change impacts on shifting cultivation systems in Kambia District between 1981 and 2021. Climate analysis reveals a statistically significant increase in mean annual temperature from approximately 26.93&#xa0;°C to 28.05&#xa0;°C, representing a warming of 1.12–1.15&#xa0;°C, alongside a substantial decline in annual precipitation from 3269.52 to 2299.23&#xa0;mm ( ≈ 30% reduction). Vegetation dynamics indicate declining canopy condition in intensively cultivated areas, with the proportion of high NDVI (“good vegetation”) decreasing from 39.6 to 32.4%, while the proportion of moderately stressed vegetation increased from 24.0 to 35.6%. Burned-area analysis shows that drought years experienced markedly higher fire activity, with burned land proportions reaching 18.8% (2006) and 15.2% (2011), compared to 8–10% during wetter years. Burn severity peaked in 2011, when 27.19% of burned areas fell within moderate-to-high severity classes, but declined to 2.23% by 2021. These satellite-derived trends closely align with farmer-reported increases in fire frequency, delayed vegetation recovery, declining soil fertility, and reduced crop yields. Together, the findings demonstrate that climate warming and declining rainfall, interacting with agricultural intensification, are accelerating vegetation degradation and fire risk in shifting cultivation landscapes. This study provides spatially explicit evidence linking long-term climate trends with land-use outcomes and rural livelihoods, offering actionable insights for climate-resilient agricultural planning and fire-risk management in humid tropical agroecosystems.</p>

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Integrating geospatial data and farmer insights to validate climate change impacts on shifting cultivation in Kambia, Sierra Leone

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月1日

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  • Muhammad Arif Goheer,
  • Sher Shah Hassan,
  • Alhaji Alusine Kebe,
  • Nazih Y. Rebouh

摘要

Shifting cultivation remains central to rural livelihoods in northern Sierra Leone but is increasingly constrained by climate variability and land-use intensification. This study integrates satellite-derived vegetation and fire indices with farmer perception surveys to assess climate change impacts on shifting cultivation systems in Kambia District between 1981 and 2021. Climate analysis reveals a statistically significant increase in mean annual temperature from approximately 26.93 °C to 28.05 °C, representing a warming of 1.12–1.15 °C, alongside a substantial decline in annual precipitation from 3269.52 to 2299.23 mm ( ≈ 30% reduction). Vegetation dynamics indicate declining canopy condition in intensively cultivated areas, with the proportion of high NDVI (“good vegetation”) decreasing from 39.6 to 32.4%, while the proportion of moderately stressed vegetation increased from 24.0 to 35.6%. Burned-area analysis shows that drought years experienced markedly higher fire activity, with burned land proportions reaching 18.8% (2006) and 15.2% (2011), compared to 8–10% during wetter years. Burn severity peaked in 2011, when 27.19% of burned areas fell within moderate-to-high severity classes, but declined to 2.23% by 2021. These satellite-derived trends closely align with farmer-reported increases in fire frequency, delayed vegetation recovery, declining soil fertility, and reduced crop yields. Together, the findings demonstrate that climate warming and declining rainfall, interacting with agricultural intensification, are accelerating vegetation degradation and fire risk in shifting cultivation landscapes. This study provides spatially explicit evidence linking long-term climate trends with land-use outcomes and rural livelihoods, offering actionable insights for climate-resilient agricultural planning and fire-risk management in humid tropical agroecosystems.