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<p>Climate-induced rural–urban migration is increasingly reshaping Somalia’s development and security landscape as recurrent droughts, environmental degradation, and the collapse of pastoral and rain-fed farming livelihoods drive large-scale internal displacement into weakly governed cities. This study empirically tested how climate-related rural–urban migration links rural environmental stress to urban fragility and multidimensional security risks among internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Mogadishu and Kismayo, while assessing governance as a mediator and migrant resilience strategies as a moderator. Using a cross-sectional quantitative design, a structured online questionnaire was administered to 500 climate-affected adult IDPs selected through simple random sampling from digitally reachable urban settlements. The measures demonstrated strong reliability (Cronbach’s α = 0.76–0.88). Data were analyzed in SPSS-26 using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlations, regression, and mediation/moderation tests at a 5% significance level. Respondents were predominantly male (58%) and young (75% aged 18–35), largely originating from rural villages (70%), and primarily residing in Mogadishu (60%) or Kismayo (30%); most had lived in the city for over six months, suggesting increasingly permanent displacement. Perceptions were high for climate drivers (M = 4.35), urban fragility (M = 4.42), governance vulnerability (M = 4.21), and security risks (M = 4.30), while resilience strategies were moderate (M = 3.89). Climate drivers correlated positively with urban fragility (r = 0.61) and security risks (r = 0.65), and urban fragility was strongly correlated with security risks (r = 0.72) (all <i>p</i> &lt; 0.01); resilience correlated negatively with fragility and insecurity. Regression supported the hypothesized effects (β = 0.61, 0.48, 0.64; <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001). Governance partially mediated the migration–security relationship (direct = 0.31; indirect = 0.17; <i>p</i> &lt; 0.01), and resilience moderated the fragility–security link (interaction β =  − 0.14; <i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) without eliminating risk. Overall, climate change operates as a security multiplier in fragile urban systems; informal coping can buffer but cannot resolve structurally produced insecurity, underscoring the need for integrated rural adaptation, inclusive urban planning, strengthened municipal governance, and targeted policing and protection in displacement-affected neighborhoods.</p>

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Climate-induced rural–urban migration in Somalia: security risks, urban fragility, and pathways to resilience

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月7日

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  • Abdulkadir Abdullahi Sharif,
  • Abdullahi Ilyas Osman

摘要

Climate-induced rural–urban migration is increasingly reshaping Somalia’s development and security landscape as recurrent droughts, environmental degradation, and the collapse of pastoral and rain-fed farming livelihoods drive large-scale internal displacement into weakly governed cities. This study empirically tested how climate-related rural–urban migration links rural environmental stress to urban fragility and multidimensional security risks among internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Mogadishu and Kismayo, while assessing governance as a mediator and migrant resilience strategies as a moderator. Using a cross-sectional quantitative design, a structured online questionnaire was administered to 500 climate-affected adult IDPs selected through simple random sampling from digitally reachable urban settlements. The measures demonstrated strong reliability (Cronbach’s α = 0.76–0.88). Data were analyzed in SPSS-26 using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlations, regression, and mediation/moderation tests at a 5% significance level. Respondents were predominantly male (58%) and young (75% aged 18–35), largely originating from rural villages (70%), and primarily residing in Mogadishu (60%) or Kismayo (30%); most had lived in the city for over six months, suggesting increasingly permanent displacement. Perceptions were high for climate drivers (M = 4.35), urban fragility (M = 4.42), governance vulnerability (M = 4.21), and security risks (M = 4.30), while resilience strategies were moderate (M = 3.89). Climate drivers correlated positively with urban fragility (r = 0.61) and security risks (r = 0.65), and urban fragility was strongly correlated with security risks (r = 0.72) (all p < 0.01); resilience correlated negatively with fragility and insecurity. Regression supported the hypothesized effects (β = 0.61, 0.48, 0.64; p < 0.001). Governance partially mediated the migration–security relationship (direct = 0.31; indirect = 0.17; p < 0.01), and resilience moderated the fragility–security link (interaction β =  − 0.14; p < 0.05) without eliminating risk. Overall, climate change operates as a security multiplier in fragile urban systems; informal coping can buffer but cannot resolve structurally produced insecurity, underscoring the need for integrated rural adaptation, inclusive urban planning, strengthened municipal governance, and targeted policing and protection in displacement-affected neighborhoods.