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<p>Climate change is intensifying drought risks across Central Asia, with mountainous regions like Batken in southwestern Kyrgyzstan particularly vulnerable due to their complex topography, climatic variability, and socio-political marginality. Despite increasing recognition of these risks, localized evidence on the impacts of drought and the adaptive capacity of rural communities remains limited. This study combines meteorological data analysis, remote sensing indices (TCI, VCI, VHI), and community-based qualitative research to examine drought impacts on crop yields and adaptation strategies across diverse altitudinal zones in Batken. Our analysis reveals a fivefold increase in drought frequency in recent decades. In-situ observations show a seasonal shift in temperature trends, confirming community reports of rapid warming in March over the past 20&#xa0;years. This warming has resulted in fruit crop losses during flowering stages and altered the timing of livestock migration to and from summer pastures, contributing to fodder scarcity and rising prices. Extensive community consultations uncovered a rich tapestry of locally developed adaptation strategies, tailored to the distinct challenges of each elevation zone. However, these efforts remain largely unsupported by formal state programs. By integrating scientific data with local knowledge, this research provides a nuanced, place-based understanding of climate vulnerability and resilience. The findings offer actionable insights for national adaptation planning and contribute to broader discussions on sustainable climate responses in marginal mountain regions.</p>

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Adapting to drought: climate change and agricultural resilience in Batken region of Kyrgyzstan

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月20日

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  • Asel Murzakulova,
  • Erkin Isaev,
  • Mariiash Ermanova

摘要

Climate change is intensifying drought risks across Central Asia, with mountainous regions like Batken in southwestern Kyrgyzstan particularly vulnerable due to their complex topography, climatic variability, and socio-political marginality. Despite increasing recognition of these risks, localized evidence on the impacts of drought and the adaptive capacity of rural communities remains limited. This study combines meteorological data analysis, remote sensing indices (TCI, VCI, VHI), and community-based qualitative research to examine drought impacts on crop yields and adaptation strategies across diverse altitudinal zones in Batken. Our analysis reveals a fivefold increase in drought frequency in recent decades. In-situ observations show a seasonal shift in temperature trends, confirming community reports of rapid warming in March over the past 20 years. This warming has resulted in fruit crop losses during flowering stages and altered the timing of livestock migration to and from summer pastures, contributing to fodder scarcity and rising prices. Extensive community consultations uncovered a rich tapestry of locally developed adaptation strategies, tailored to the distinct challenges of each elevation zone. However, these efforts remain largely unsupported by formal state programs. By integrating scientific data with local knowledge, this research provides a nuanced, place-based understanding of climate vulnerability and resilience. The findings offer actionable insights for national adaptation planning and contribute to broader discussions on sustainable climate responses in marginal mountain regions.