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<p>Urban Heat Islands (UHIs) pose growing challenges in semi-arid regions, where rapid urbanization intensifies pressure on fragile ecosystems. This study evaluates the effectiveness of Iran’s National Physical Plan (1996–2016)—designed to promote balanced regional development and environmental sustainability—in mitigating UHI effects in East Azerbaijan Province, a designated pilot region. Despite these goals, centralized growth prevailed, with urban expansion concentrated around Tabriz. Using Landsat-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity (SUHII), combined with census and municipal records, we analyzed 420 county-year observations (1996–2016) via fixed-effects panel regression. Validation against 19 synoptic weather stations and MODIS Aqua confirmed data reliability. Results show built-up area expansion and vegetation decline as the dominant drivers of UHI intensification, with service concentration further amplifying thermal stress. Province-wide, mean daytime LST increased by 2.58 °C and SUHII rose by 0.51 °C, with Tabriz experiencing a 2.95 °C LST rise and a 10.19 °C increase in SUHII. NDVI declined by 0.031 on average, with 19 of 20 counties showing vegetation loss. Demographic disparities, employment, and county size had marginal effects. A direct comparison of Landsat-derived daytime and MODIS Aqua nighttime results across the 20 counties of East Azerbaijan Province reveals a consistent spatial hierarchy in thermal conditions. Counties exhibiting higher daytime LST and SUHII in the Landsat analysis also rank among the highest in nighttime heat retention according to MODIS. This day–night consistency indicates stable UHI patterns across the study area. The plan failed to curb centralized warming, highlighting the supra-regional impacts of urban concentration. Findings underscore the need for integrated land-use and greening strategies in semi-arid urbanizing contexts.</p>

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Unveiling the thermal impacts of urban centralization: a regional analysis of Urban Heat Island dynamics in East Azerbaijan, Iran

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月3日

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  • Asma Farsh Foroush Imani,
  • Mehrdad Rahmani

摘要

Urban Heat Islands (UHIs) pose growing challenges in semi-arid regions, where rapid urbanization intensifies pressure on fragile ecosystems. This study evaluates the effectiveness of Iran’s National Physical Plan (1996–2016)—designed to promote balanced regional development and environmental sustainability—in mitigating UHI effects in East Azerbaijan Province, a designated pilot region. Despite these goals, centralized growth prevailed, with urban expansion concentrated around Tabriz. Using Landsat-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity (SUHII), combined with census and municipal records, we analyzed 420 county-year observations (1996–2016) via fixed-effects panel regression. Validation against 19 synoptic weather stations and MODIS Aqua confirmed data reliability. Results show built-up area expansion and vegetation decline as the dominant drivers of UHI intensification, with service concentration further amplifying thermal stress. Province-wide, mean daytime LST increased by 2.58 °C and SUHII rose by 0.51 °C, with Tabriz experiencing a 2.95 °C LST rise and a 10.19 °C increase in SUHII. NDVI declined by 0.031 on average, with 19 of 20 counties showing vegetation loss. Demographic disparities, employment, and county size had marginal effects. A direct comparison of Landsat-derived daytime and MODIS Aqua nighttime results across the 20 counties of East Azerbaijan Province reveals a consistent spatial hierarchy in thermal conditions. Counties exhibiting higher daytime LST and SUHII in the Landsat analysis also rank among the highest in nighttime heat retention according to MODIS. This day–night consistency indicates stable UHI patterns across the study area. The plan failed to curb centralized warming, highlighting the supra-regional impacts of urban concentration. Findings underscore the need for integrated land-use and greening strategies in semi-arid urbanizing contexts.