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<p>In northern Nigeria, natural land cover is increasingly shaped by a range of factors. In Benue State, these factors have intensified, particularly as farmer-herder conflicts threaten both the sustainability of croplands and the integrity of natural land cover. The expansion of agricultural land into areas previously dominated by natural vegetation, combined with climate-induced stress, has contributed to significant changes in land cover and ecosystem stability. Together, these factors have made ecosystems more vulnerable and have&#xa0;accelerated environmental degradation. Despite&#xa0;the growing recognition of these challenges, studies examining how these factors collectively influence long-term changes in the extent and composition of natural land cover remain limited. To&#xa0;address this gap, this study analyzes&#xa0;multi-temporal land cover changes in Benue State over a 20-year period (2001–2023) using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and&#xa0;Dirichlet model. Integrating spectroradiometric data with a Dirichlet regression model enables us to quantify historical trends and projects future trajectories of land cover dynamics in Benue State. Results reveal a 3.9% increase in cropland area, accompanied by significant declines in deciduous broadleaf forests (− 79.5%) and grasslands (− 71.7%). Urban areas expanded by 4.7%, reflecting ongoing landscape transformation. The Dirichlet model demonstrated high predictive accuracy (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.89 for savannas, 0.76 for croplands, and 0.98 for urban areas). Projections indicate continued cropland expansion and further loss of natural vegetation by 2030. These findings point to the urgent need for sustainable land-use planning, climate-resilient agricultural practices, and conflict-sensitive policy interventions to ensure food security and the preservation of ecosystems in Benue State.</p>

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Modeling land cover dynamics in Benue State, Nigeria using MODIS Data and Dirichlet model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月14日

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  • Femi Emmanuel Ikuemonisan,
  • Yusuf Olanrewaju Kayode,
  • Olumide F. Odeyinka

摘要

In northern Nigeria, natural land cover is increasingly shaped by a range of factors. In Benue State, these factors have intensified, particularly as farmer-herder conflicts threaten both the sustainability of croplands and the integrity of natural land cover. The expansion of agricultural land into areas previously dominated by natural vegetation, combined with climate-induced stress, has contributed to significant changes in land cover and ecosystem stability. Together, these factors have made ecosystems more vulnerable and have accelerated environmental degradation. Despite the growing recognition of these challenges, studies examining how these factors collectively influence long-term changes in the extent and composition of natural land cover remain limited. To address this gap, this study analyzes multi-temporal land cover changes in Benue State over a 20-year period (2001–2023) using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and Dirichlet model. Integrating spectroradiometric data with a Dirichlet regression model enables us to quantify historical trends and projects future trajectories of land cover dynamics in Benue State. Results reveal a 3.9% increase in cropland area, accompanied by significant declines in deciduous broadleaf forests (− 79.5%) and grasslands (− 71.7%). Urban areas expanded by 4.7%, reflecting ongoing landscape transformation. The Dirichlet model demonstrated high predictive accuracy (R2 = 0.89 for savannas, 0.76 for croplands, and 0.98 for urban areas). Projections indicate continued cropland expansion and further loss of natural vegetation by 2030. These findings point to the urgent need for sustainable land-use planning, climate-resilient agricultural practices, and conflict-sensitive policy interventions to ensure food security and the preservation of ecosystems in Benue State.