Assessing the climate change vulnerability of shanghai rural areas and identifying its key contributing factors

Rural areas are disproportionately affected by climate change due to their relative social and economic vulnerability. Particularly in a coastal region like Shanghai where sea level rise and natural hazards are worsened by climate change, it is crucial to address these problems. Despite this, there exists a knowledge gap on climate change vulnerability in Shanghai rural areas. This study assesses the climate change vulnerability of rural areas in Shanghai by constructing a climate change vulnerability index based on the IPCC framework for vulnerability. Statistical, geospatial, and biophysical data was collected on all rural areas in Shanghai, and factor analysis was performed on the dataset to extract 6 factors from a total of 21 indicators, with these factors making up 67.39% of total variance in data. These factors included: socio-ecological-built characteristics (21.8%), demographic pressure (13.32%), weather variability and climate hazards (11.41%), sponge city characteristics (8.42%), demographic sensitivity (6.86%), and landscape characteristics (6.09%). It was found that 542,377 (7%) of the total rural population in Shanghai was living in subdistricts with high CVI, including 62,891 children (8%) and 58,441 elders (8%). Based on the results of this study it is suggested that planners prioritize robust transportation networks during times of emergency, robust weather and storm monitoring systems, policies that aim to preserve agricultural land and promote ecological agriculture practices and provide additional resources for more vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, and women to mitigate climate change vulnerability. This research study provides a scientific basis for local planners and policy makers to formulate risk management policies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change and provides crucial implications for rural planning.