The influence of community-based conservation governance arrangements on lion population in the amboseli ecosystem

The African lion has been the target of community-based conservation interventions that aim to halt the unprecedented decline of this iconic species that supports a lucrative tourism industry. Lions frequently get into conflict with pastoralists due to livestock predation leading to retaliatory killing. Assessments of interventions have mainly been goal-oriented, neglecting governance and institutional processes which form key components of potential improvement. Using the policy arrangement approach (PAA) we analyzed the factors that constitute governance arrangements of lion conservation interventions in the Amboseli ecosystem and the statistical effect of these factors on perceptions of lion population trends. We used a mixed methods design consisting of document analysis, key informant interviews, and household surveys. The results indicate high levels of the three forms of congruence. Congruence was a positive predictor of perceptions of lion population trends. In addition, financial and social capital, and rules monitoring were positive predictors. Compliance to the rules and natural capital were however negative predictors. This may indicate extrinsically motivated compliance triggered by both financial incentives including compensation and law enforcement. This implies that the current solutions fail to fully address poverty, an underlying cause of conflict. Consequently, a precarious state of congruence or stability exists, which may be lost at any particular time particularly if the heavily donor-dependent incentive and security programs are removed. The involvement of the tourism industry investors in policy development and implementation would be a good starting point in providing a more stable capital investment in the goals of conservation and development.