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<p>Assumptions commonly employed in studies of pumping in leaky confined aquifers—such as neglecting inter-aquifer leakage or simplifying partially penetrating wells—often lead to reduced computational accuracy. This study presents a hybrid numerical–analytical model for predicting pumping-induced ground&#xa0;settlement, which incorporates key factors including pumping rate, permeability anisotropy, specific storage, aquitard property, well screen deviation, and well integrity. Numerical analysis was used to identify the key factors affecting drawdown, which subsequently facilitated the development of a drawdown distribution function. Sensitivity analysis revealed that all factors, with the exception of the underlying aquitard property, have a significant influence on drawdown. The half-life of the distribution function was further introduced to evaluate the hydraulic performance of the aquifer. Using this function, the Mindlin solution was applied to calculate settlement in aquifers bounded by thin aquitards. Validation against a field pumping test confirmed that the proposed method reliably estimates pumping-induced settlement in leaky confined aquifers.</p>

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Hybrid Numerical and Analytical Prediction of Land Settlement due to Pumping from Leaky Confined Aquifers

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月31日

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  • Dongdong Fan,
  • Yong Tan

摘要

Assumptions commonly employed in studies of pumping in leaky confined aquifers—such as neglecting inter-aquifer leakage or simplifying partially penetrating wells—often lead to reduced computational accuracy. This study presents a hybrid numerical–analytical model for predicting pumping-induced ground settlement, which incorporates key factors including pumping rate, permeability anisotropy, specific storage, aquitard property, well screen deviation, and well integrity. Numerical analysis was used to identify the key factors affecting drawdown, which subsequently facilitated the development of a drawdown distribution function. Sensitivity analysis revealed that all factors, with the exception of the underlying aquitard property, have a significant influence on drawdown. The half-life of the distribution function was further introduced to evaluate the hydraulic performance of the aquifer. Using this function, the Mindlin solution was applied to calculate settlement in aquifers bounded by thin aquitards. Validation against a field pumping test confirmed that the proposed method reliably estimates pumping-induced settlement in leaky confined aquifers.