Displacement Prediction for Reservoir-induced Landslides under Water Level Fluctuations
摘要
The rim slopes that form the reservoir of the dams frequently experience water level fluctuations. These fluctuations can be as high as 80 m during an entire year. Water level fluctuations pose serious threat to the stability of rim slopes and can trigger severe landslides. Reservoir-induced landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) area are fine example of the instabilities caused by water level fluctuations. More than 5000 landslides were recorded within TGR due to water level fluctuations of 30 m annually. It becomes increasingly necessary to conduct detailed study on water level fluctuations concerning the stability of rim slopes. Subsequently, there is a need for simple generic solutions that can provide rough assessment of displacement along reservoir rim slopes. The present study explores the displacement trends of soil rim slopes under the influence of reservoir water level fluctuations with the help of a series of small-scale physical slope model tests (PSMTs) by varying slope inclination, cyclic fluctuation rate and number of cycles of fluctuation. The resulted displacements from the PSMTs were used to propose a dimension-less term called spread index, and further for regression analysis. A generalized displacement prediction empirical solution is proposed based on spread index, and the solution is validated through three case studies from the TGR with errors under 10%. It is suggested that the proposed solution can be beneficial for the practicing engineers for preliminary surveys of reservoir-induced landslides.