<p>Predicting Open TBM performance in hard rock has been a long-standing challenge in tunneling engineering. The CSM and NTNU models have been widely used to estimate TBM advance rates and cutter forces based on rock mass properties and operational parameters. These models are detailed and widely applied, capable of predicting TBM performance with varying but acceptable accuracy, depending on the amount of input data available. However, they require comprehensive rock property investigations, which can be time-consuming and costly. Data analysis of a global database from 105 tunneling projects revealed strong correlations between diameter and torque, power, and thrust. Building on these findings, the study combines linear regression and random forest models to deliver a fast, cost-effective tool for feasibility studies, performance checks, and optimizing TBM design and operation. Monte Carlo simulations with 10,000 diameter samples defined the expected operational ranges for power, thrust, and torque. Sensitivity analysis further revealed that a 10% increase in diameter led to a 12.06% rise in power, a 13.80% increase in torque, but a 17.41% decrease in thrust. Conversely, a 10% reduction in diameter resulted in power decreasing by 17.66%, torque by 35.53%, and thrust by 26.04%, confirming torque as the most sensitive metric.</p>

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Sensitivity and Monte Carlo Analysis of Open TBM Diameter: Impacts on Power, Thrust, and Torque

  • Oveis Farzay,
  • Marilena Cardu,
  • Seyedkhashayar Jamali

摘要

Predicting Open TBM performance in hard rock has been a long-standing challenge in tunneling engineering. The CSM and NTNU models have been widely used to estimate TBM advance rates and cutter forces based on rock mass properties and operational parameters. These models are detailed and widely applied, capable of predicting TBM performance with varying but acceptable accuracy, depending on the amount of input data available. However, they require comprehensive rock property investigations, which can be time-consuming and costly. Data analysis of a global database from 105 tunneling projects revealed strong correlations between diameter and torque, power, and thrust. Building on these findings, the study combines linear regression and random forest models to deliver a fast, cost-effective tool for feasibility studies, performance checks, and optimizing TBM design and operation. Monte Carlo simulations with 10,000 diameter samples defined the expected operational ranges for power, thrust, and torque. Sensitivity analysis further revealed that a 10% increase in diameter led to a 12.06% rise in power, a 13.80% increase in torque, but a 17.41% decrease in thrust. Conversely, a 10% reduction in diameter resulted in power decreasing by 17.66%, torque by 35.53%, and thrust by 26.04%, confirming torque as the most sensitive metric.