Risk Assessment Model and Safety Management of Lithium Battery Fire Based on Bayesian Network
摘要
Lithium battery fires can lead to severe casualties and significant property losses. Proactively evaluating and predicting lithium battery hazards enables timely preventive measures, thereby mitigating the severity of potential fire incidents through enhanced safety management. Therefore, conducting risk assessments and implementing safety measures for lithium battery fires is essential. Firstly, this study classified lithium battery fire risks into four grades and summarized the key factors contributing to battery fires. Secondly, it developed an integrated Fuzzy Bayesian Network (FBN) model that innovatively combines fishbone diagram analysis with probabilistic reasoning to quantitatively assess the complex interdependencies among fire-inducing factors. To validate the model’s effectiveness, a case study was conducted, and the results align with the actual risk levels of historical accidents, confirming the model’s reliability. This model can serve as a valuable reference for lithium battery fire risk evaluation. Furthermore, based on the case study findings and the constructed risk assessment model, a corresponding safety management system was established. This system helps reduce accident occurrence and minimize the severity of their consequences.