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<p>This study constructs and analyses a composite Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) for 17 emerging economies over the period 2001–2021. The CVI is derived by combining the Environmental Vulnerability Index and the Socio-Economic Vulnerability Index using Principal Component Analysis. This research employed a novel approach by incorporating composite measure of climate vulnerabilities in the conventional Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model to capture the delay in EKC transition, the threshold where economic growth begins to decouple from environmental degradation, for emerging economies. The model is estimated using fixed-effects panel regression and validated by Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares estimation. The findings indicate a significant difference in the values of climate vulnerabilities among countries. Chile, Poland and Hungary are low vulnerable countries whereas India, South Africa, and the Philippines are highly vulnerable due to the continuous socio-economic constraints and environmental pressures. The estimates confirm an inverted U-shaped relationship between income and carbon intensity, effectively moderated by climate vulnerabilities. The composite index confirms the hypothesis with a turning point at approximately USD 6348 in GDP per capita, whereas the turning point occurs in the environmental index at approximately USD 4727. The regression results show that higher vulnerability scores are independently associated with high carbon intensity, indicating that composite vulnerability delays and complicates the transition toward lower emissions. This research offers novel cross-national evidence on how the mitigating vulnerability can complement environmental gains from economic growth.</p>

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An assessment of climate vulnerabilities in selected emerging economies with validation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月2日

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  • Jyoti Kumari,
  • Hemlata Manglani,
  • Hridhima Agarwal,
  • Aman Verma

摘要

This study constructs and analyses a composite Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) for 17 emerging economies over the period 2001–2021. The CVI is derived by combining the Environmental Vulnerability Index and the Socio-Economic Vulnerability Index using Principal Component Analysis. This research employed a novel approach by incorporating composite measure of climate vulnerabilities in the conventional Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model to capture the delay in EKC transition, the threshold where economic growth begins to decouple from environmental degradation, for emerging economies. The model is estimated using fixed-effects panel regression and validated by Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares estimation. The findings indicate a significant difference in the values of climate vulnerabilities among countries. Chile, Poland and Hungary are low vulnerable countries whereas India, South Africa, and the Philippines are highly vulnerable due to the continuous socio-economic constraints and environmental pressures. The estimates confirm an inverted U-shaped relationship between income and carbon intensity, effectively moderated by climate vulnerabilities. The composite index confirms the hypothesis with a turning point at approximately USD 6348 in GDP per capita, whereas the turning point occurs in the environmental index at approximately USD 4727. The regression results show that higher vulnerability scores are independently associated with high carbon intensity, indicating that composite vulnerability delays and complicates the transition toward lower emissions. This research offers novel cross-national evidence on how the mitigating vulnerability can complement environmental gains from economic growth.