<p>This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between global value chain (GVC) integration and carbon emissions in developing economies, with emphasis on the roles of forward and backward participation (BPTV and FTTV) and the influence of mineral resources. Utilizing data from 55 developing economies spanning 2010–2023, and applying the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, the study identifies distinct environmental effects tied to different forms of GVC engagement. Results indicate that BPTV is positively and significantly associated with increased carbon emissions (0.5710, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.01), value-added imports. In contrast, FTTV also shows a significant positive effect (0.5729, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.01), although interaction terms reveal that mineral resource intensity moderates this relationship, with statistically significant negative effects in the presence of high resource dependency. Interaction between mineral resource participation and both BPTV and FTTV yielded negative coefficients (− 3.0820 and − 3.4429, respectively; <i>p</i> &lt; 0.05), supporting the asymmetric environmental consequences of resource-integrated trade. These findings suggest the need for policies that optimize GVC participation while mitigating its environmental costs. The NARDL model’s capacity to capture nonlinear and asymmetric dynamics offers critical insights for developing economies seeking sustainable integration into sustainable development.</p>

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Sustainable global energy value chain to mitigate carbon emissions in developing economies

  • Qusay Hassan

摘要

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between global value chain (GVC) integration and carbon emissions in developing economies, with emphasis on the roles of forward and backward participation (BPTV and FTTV) and the influence of mineral resources. Utilizing data from 55 developing economies spanning 2010–2023, and applying the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, the study identifies distinct environmental effects tied to different forms of GVC engagement. Results indicate that BPTV is positively and significantly associated with increased carbon emissions (0.5710, p < 0.01), value-added imports. In contrast, FTTV also shows a significant positive effect (0.5729, p < 0.01), although interaction terms reveal that mineral resource intensity moderates this relationship, with statistically significant negative effects in the presence of high resource dependency. Interaction between mineral resource participation and both BPTV and FTTV yielded negative coefficients (− 3.0820 and − 3.4429, respectively; p < 0.05), supporting the asymmetric environmental consequences of resource-integrated trade. These findings suggest the need for policies that optimize GVC participation while mitigating its environmental costs. The NARDL model’s capacity to capture nonlinear and asymmetric dynamics offers critical insights for developing economies seeking sustainable integration into sustainable development.