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<p>Artificial intelligence technology (AIT) is driving technological change and industrial transformation. Based on the technology–organization–environment (TOE) framework, this study examines how AIT affects industrial structure upgrading in China by considering the mediating role of the digital economy and the moderating effects of formal and informal environmental regulation. Using panel data for 281 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2014 to 2023, this study evaluates two dimensions of upgrading: advancement and rationalization. The results show that AIT significantly promotes both dimensions. The digital economy plays a dual mediating role by strengthening AIT’s contribution to industrial structural advancement while masking its effect on rationalization through uneven factor allocation and weaker inter-industry coordination. The impact of AIT is heterogeneous, with stronger effects in eastern and western China, resource-based cities, and small- and medium-sized cities. Formal environmental regulation weakens AIT’s contribution to industrial structural advancement and shows no significant effect on rationalization, whereas informal regulation strengthens advancement but constrains rationalization. These findings offer implications for understanding how environmental regulation shapes industrial upgrading and for promoting greener, more coordinated, and high-quality industrial transformation.</p>

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How does artificial intelligence technology promote industrial structure upgrading? The moderating role of environmental regulation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月24日

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  • Ling Huang,
  • Xi Chen,
  • Cheng Chen

摘要

Artificial intelligence technology (AIT) is driving technological change and industrial transformation. Based on the technology–organization–environment (TOE) framework, this study examines how AIT affects industrial structure upgrading in China by considering the mediating role of the digital economy and the moderating effects of formal and informal environmental regulation. Using panel data for 281 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2014 to 2023, this study evaluates two dimensions of upgrading: advancement and rationalization. The results show that AIT significantly promotes both dimensions. The digital economy plays a dual mediating role by strengthening AIT’s contribution to industrial structural advancement while masking its effect on rationalization through uneven factor allocation and weaker inter-industry coordination. The impact of AIT is heterogeneous, with stronger effects in eastern and western China, resource-based cities, and small- and medium-sized cities. Formal environmental regulation weakens AIT’s contribution to industrial structural advancement and shows no significant effect on rationalization, whereas informal regulation strengthens advancement but constrains rationalization. These findings offer implications for understanding how environmental regulation shapes industrial upgrading and for promoting greener, more coordinated, and high-quality industrial transformation.