Climate vulnerability under forced migration: remote sensing analysis of land cover change and heat island effects of Nayapara Rohingya Refugee Camp, Bangladesh
摘要
This study investigates the environmental impacts of the Nayapara Rohingya Refugee Camp in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, an under-researched site adjacent to the fragile Teknaf Wildlife Sanctuary, housing over 151,659 Rohingya refugees who fled ethnic persecution in neighboring Myanmar. The novelty of this paper lies in the fact that it is the first study that examines the environmental impacts of the Nayapara Rohingya Refugee settlements on both inside and outside of the camp area over a span of 12 years. Using multi-temporal Landsat imagery, remote sensing, and geographic information systems (GIS) techniques, the paper assessed changes in land cover, vegetation health, measured by normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and land surface temperature (LST) between 2013 and 2025. Results show a substantial increase in built-up areas, from 6% in 2013 to 21% in 2025, largely replacing vegetated areas. High vegetation cover declined from 35% in 2013 to 19% in 2025. The reliability of the classification was confirmed through accuracy assessments, with Kappa coefficients consistently indicating strong agreement: 83.5% (2013), 78.8% (2015), 92.9% (2017), 96.5% (2019), 91.8% (2021), 94.1% (2023), and 92.9% (2025). NDVI inside the camp decreased by a substantial 27.8% during the study period, while it declined by only 9.8% outside the camp during the same period, highlighting intensified ecological stress within the refugee settlement boundary. LST analysis shows consistently higher temperatures within the camp, with the strongest thermal contrast in 2023 and 2025, when inside-outside differences exceeded 4.7 °C. This pattern indicates an emerging urban heat island-like effect associated with settlement expansion. These findings underscore the environmental consequences of large-scale refugee settlements and emphasize the need for sustainable, climate-aware regional planning.