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<p>To build inclusive, safe, and sustainable cities in line with SDG 11, understanding how urban population characteristics respond to land-use changes is crucial. However, the dynamics and differentiation within finely subdivided population structures remain unclear, and the distinct demographic effects of urban renewal versus expansion have yet to be systematically examined. Taking Shenzhen as a case study, this research identifies both urban expansion and renewal areas, constructing a theoretical framework based on cultural capital, institutional rights, and fixed assets. Using ternary diagrams, lollipop plots, and fixed-effect models, we analyze the evolutionary mechanisms of population structure during the transition from spatial expansion to renewal. The results show that as Shenzhen transitions between these phases, its population has undergone significant upgrading, particularly in education and hukou status. This shift is most evident in renewal subdistricts, which attract highly educated residents, whereas expansion subdistricts primarily attract those with mid-level education. Beyond displacement due to renewal, structural upgrading is further driven by a substantial influx of highly educated migrants, with the number of such residents increasing by 210% between 2010 and 2020. While synchronized population upgrading occurred across Shenzhen’s renewal and expansion areas, at the metropolitan scale this has been accompanied by a trend of core gentrification and peripheral impoverishment that extends beyond administrative boundaries.</p>

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Population structure shifts from urban expansion to renewal: examining education, hukou, and housing dimensions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月20日

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  • Kexin Cao,
  • Xueyuan Deng,
  • Ci Song,
  • Yu Deng

摘要

To build inclusive, safe, and sustainable cities in line with SDG 11, understanding how urban population characteristics respond to land-use changes is crucial. However, the dynamics and differentiation within finely subdivided population structures remain unclear, and the distinct demographic effects of urban renewal versus expansion have yet to be systematically examined. Taking Shenzhen as a case study, this research identifies both urban expansion and renewal areas, constructing a theoretical framework based on cultural capital, institutional rights, and fixed assets. Using ternary diagrams, lollipop plots, and fixed-effect models, we analyze the evolutionary mechanisms of population structure during the transition from spatial expansion to renewal. The results show that as Shenzhen transitions between these phases, its population has undergone significant upgrading, particularly in education and hukou status. This shift is most evident in renewal subdistricts, which attract highly educated residents, whereas expansion subdistricts primarily attract those with mid-level education. Beyond displacement due to renewal, structural upgrading is further driven by a substantial influx of highly educated migrants, with the number of such residents increasing by 210% between 2010 and 2020. While synchronized population upgrading occurred across Shenzhen’s renewal and expansion areas, at the metropolitan scale this has been accompanied by a trend of core gentrification and peripheral impoverishment that extends beyond administrative boundaries.