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<p>Although new-type urbanization (NTU) has driven socioeconomic development in China, it has also increased carbon emissions. Most existing studies have failed to adequately address its dynamic spatial effects and nonlinear characteristics. Using balanced panel dataset comprising 272 Chinese cities over 2006–2021, this study developed an analytical framework centered on “dynamic spatial effects, heterogeneity, and nonlinearity.” The Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model (DSDM) and threshold regression model, were used to assess the effects of NTU on operational carbon emissions from urban residential buildings (UROCE). The results indicated that: (1) UROCE in China demonstrates significant spatial agglomeration and strong spatiotemporal path dependence. (2) NTU significantly increased local carbon emissions, yet its inhibitory effect on surrounding regions is not pronounced. The effects also varied across building climate zones and city types. (3) The impact of NTU on UROCE changed nonlinearly across industrial structure (IS) thresholds, with both the intensity and direction of this effect varying by stage of industrial development. These findings provide a comprehensive assessment of the carbon impact of NTU for developing countries seeking to reduce residential operational carbon-emission reduction while advancing urbanization.</p>

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The New-Type Urbanization Driving Effect of Residential Operational Carbon Emissions in Chinese Cities: Spatial and Nonlinear Perspectives

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月11日

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  • Weimin Xiang,
  • Wen Liu,
  • Jiao Li

摘要

Although new-type urbanization (NTU) has driven socioeconomic development in China, it has also increased carbon emissions. Most existing studies have failed to adequately address its dynamic spatial effects and nonlinear characteristics. Using balanced panel dataset comprising 272 Chinese cities over 2006–2021, this study developed an analytical framework centered on “dynamic spatial effects, heterogeneity, and nonlinearity.” The Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model (DSDM) and threshold regression model, were used to assess the effects of NTU on operational carbon emissions from urban residential buildings (UROCE). The results indicated that: (1) UROCE in China demonstrates significant spatial agglomeration and strong spatiotemporal path dependence. (2) NTU significantly increased local carbon emissions, yet its inhibitory effect on surrounding regions is not pronounced. The effects also varied across building climate zones and city types. (3) The impact of NTU on UROCE changed nonlinearly across industrial structure (IS) thresholds, with both the intensity and direction of this effect varying by stage of industrial development. These findings provide a comprehensive assessment of the carbon impact of NTU for developing countries seeking to reduce residential operational carbon-emission reduction while advancing urbanization.