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<p>This study investigates the impact of climate stress-temperature, precipitation and non-climatic factors, fixed capital (FC), human capital (HC), natural capital (NC), information and communication technology (ICT) on agricultural, industrial and service sectors. Using cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) model, we analyse the long-run and short-run effects for 114 countries in high, upper middle, lower middle and low-income countries from 1990 to 2024. The techniques of fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) have been applied to enhance robustness. The findings reveal that poor economies are more vulnerable to extreme heat experiences compared to rich economies, and the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between the industrial and service sectors and heat stress in lower-middle and low-income countries. An inverted U-shaped association of agriculture and industrial sector with rainfall has been detected in lower middle-income countries, whereas U-shaped relation exists in both agriculture and service sectors in high and low-income countries. FC emerges as significant contributor to enhancing industrial productivity. While HC declines agricultural productivity in middle-income countries, it helps to boost the production of industry and service sector in long run only. Abundant natural resources negatively contribute to economic growth in poor countries, underscoring the imperative for targeted incentives for efficient and green technology. ICT has a long-term positive impact on all sectors’ output in high-income group, but its impact is negative in lower middle and low-income groups. The results indicate clear guidance, offer effective income-group–targeted strategies to mitigate climate-related vulnerabilities and propose avenues for future research accordingly.</p>

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Unpacking sectoral growth in heterogeneous economies: role of climatic and non-climatic drivers

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月2日

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  • Piyali Kumar

摘要

This study investigates the impact of climate stress-temperature, precipitation and non-climatic factors, fixed capital (FC), human capital (HC), natural capital (NC), information and communication technology (ICT) on agricultural, industrial and service sectors. Using cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) model, we analyse the long-run and short-run effects for 114 countries in high, upper middle, lower middle and low-income countries from 1990 to 2024. The techniques of fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) have been applied to enhance robustness. The findings reveal that poor economies are more vulnerable to extreme heat experiences compared to rich economies, and the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between the industrial and service sectors and heat stress in lower-middle and low-income countries. An inverted U-shaped association of agriculture and industrial sector with rainfall has been detected in lower middle-income countries, whereas U-shaped relation exists in both agriculture and service sectors in high and low-income countries. FC emerges as significant contributor to enhancing industrial productivity. While HC declines agricultural productivity in middle-income countries, it helps to boost the production of industry and service sector in long run only. Abundant natural resources negatively contribute to economic growth in poor countries, underscoring the imperative for targeted incentives for efficient and green technology. ICT has a long-term positive impact on all sectors’ output in high-income group, but its impact is negative in lower middle and low-income groups. The results indicate clear guidance, offer effective income-group–targeted strategies to mitigate climate-related vulnerabilities and propose avenues for future research accordingly.