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<p>Urban agglomerations function as coupled socio-ecological systems in which urban heat intensity, energy use, and carbon emissions co-evolve with land development, energy infrastructure, and human activity. However, empirical evidence on how these factors are coupled remains limited. In this study, we investigate the urban heat-energy-carbon (HEC) linkage in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) megaregion using remote-sensing indicators and city-level socio-economic data from 2008 to 2022. A fixed effects panel regression estimates the association between urban heat intensity and carbon emissions, while mediation and threshold models examine the mediating role of energy consumption and the development-stage conditions under which this relationship changes. The results show that stronger urban thermal pressure is linked to higher city-level carbon emissions. Mediation decomposition further indicates that aggregate energy use explains 54.29% of this linkage, whereas the pathway related to energy-use structure accounts for 18.02%. Development thresholds also condition this association, although the magnitude of this pattern varies across all subregions of the YRD. These findings provide empirical evidence on the coupling among urban thermal pressure, energy systems, and carbon emissions in a rapidly developing megaregion.</p>

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Urban heat–energy–carbon linkages in a megaregion: evidence from the Yangtze River Delta

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月1日

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  • Zhonglin Tang,
  • Yaxin Rao,
  • Yezi Xu

摘要

Urban agglomerations function as coupled socio-ecological systems in which urban heat intensity, energy use, and carbon emissions co-evolve with land development, energy infrastructure, and human activity. However, empirical evidence on how these factors are coupled remains limited. In this study, we investigate the urban heat-energy-carbon (HEC) linkage in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) megaregion using remote-sensing indicators and city-level socio-economic data from 2008 to 2022. A fixed effects panel regression estimates the association between urban heat intensity and carbon emissions, while mediation and threshold models examine the mediating role of energy consumption and the development-stage conditions under which this relationship changes. The results show that stronger urban thermal pressure is linked to higher city-level carbon emissions. Mediation decomposition further indicates that aggregate energy use explains 54.29% of this linkage, whereas the pathway related to energy-use structure accounts for 18.02%. Development thresholds also condition this association, although the magnitude of this pattern varies across all subregions of the YRD. These findings provide empirical evidence on the coupling among urban thermal pressure, energy systems, and carbon emissions in a rapidly developing megaregion.