<p>Balancing economic growth with environmental protection poses a critical challenge to urban sustainable development, yet the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to address this problem remains insufficiently explored. To bridge this gap, this study evaluates urban sustainable development performance, leveraging the phased implementation of China’s new-generation AI innovation pilot zones as a quasi-natural experiment. A double machine learning model is applied to examine the impact of artificial intelligence on sustainable development, uncovering its underlying mechanisms and exploring the moderating role of carbon emission control goals. Econometric estimations indicate that artificial intelligence significantly advances urban sustainable development, although this catalytic effect exhibits profound heterogeneity contingent upon specific city-tier classifications and urban structural characteristics. Mechanistically, AI influences sustainable development by stimulating entrepreneurial dynamism, optimizing employment quality, strengthening innovation-driven growth, accelerating energy transitions, and cultivating low-carbon awareness. The linkage between AI and sustainability is negatively moderated by carbon reduction targets.</p>