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<p>As a pivotal institutional innovation embedded in Chinese value-added tax (VAT) reform framework, the VAT carryforward and refund policy enhances enterprise sustainability through optimizing cash flow allocation efficiency. Although the consequences of this policy for cash flow and investment effectiveness has been addressed in prior literature, whether and how this fiscal instrument affects the long-term sustainability of firms and the underlying mechanisms have not been fully studied. This paper aims to systematically explore the policy’s causal effects on corporate sustainable development capabilities-leveraging the 2018 VAT carryforward and refund policy reform, employing a quasi-natural experimental setting, and adopting a difference-in-differences (DID) identification strategy. The findings reveal that the VAT carryforward and refund policy produces significantly positive effects in raising corporate sustainable development capabilities. Meanwhile, R&amp;D investment exhibits a significantly positive moderating effect, while financial constraints and financial slack are effective channels. From the perspective of internal characteristics, firms with long operating cycles, capital intensiveness, and digital transformation are more affected by the policy, while from the standpoint of the external environment, firms with low marketization and better credit ratings can benefit more from policy influences. This study pioneers the integration of VAT-based fiscal instruments into the analysis of corporate sustainability, theorizing the VAT carryforward and refund policy as an exogenous resource mechanism, and conceptualizing the process of enterprises being able to reallocate internal and external capabilities for sustainable development, What’s more, the findings provide guidance for the government’s targeted fiscal policy design, and also provide strategic enlightenment for managers to transform the liquidity released by tax into long-term organizational resilience.</p>

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The impact of VAT carryforward and refund policy on corporate sustainable development capabilities: micro-evidence from China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月3日

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  • Mengyao Xia,
  • Chen Chen,
  • Ling Gao,
  • Xuelian Yu

摘要

As a pivotal institutional innovation embedded in Chinese value-added tax (VAT) reform framework, the VAT carryforward and refund policy enhances enterprise sustainability through optimizing cash flow allocation efficiency. Although the consequences of this policy for cash flow and investment effectiveness has been addressed in prior literature, whether and how this fiscal instrument affects the long-term sustainability of firms and the underlying mechanisms have not been fully studied. This paper aims to systematically explore the policy’s causal effects on corporate sustainable development capabilities-leveraging the 2018 VAT carryforward and refund policy reform, employing a quasi-natural experimental setting, and adopting a difference-in-differences (DID) identification strategy. The findings reveal that the VAT carryforward and refund policy produces significantly positive effects in raising corporate sustainable development capabilities. Meanwhile, R&D investment exhibits a significantly positive moderating effect, while financial constraints and financial slack are effective channels. From the perspective of internal characteristics, firms with long operating cycles, capital intensiveness, and digital transformation are more affected by the policy, while from the standpoint of the external environment, firms with low marketization and better credit ratings can benefit more from policy influences. This study pioneers the integration of VAT-based fiscal instruments into the analysis of corporate sustainability, theorizing the VAT carryforward and refund policy as an exogenous resource mechanism, and conceptualizing the process of enterprises being able to reallocate internal and external capabilities for sustainable development, What’s more, the findings provide guidance for the government’s targeted fiscal policy design, and also provide strategic enlightenment for managers to transform the liquidity released by tax into long-term organizational resilience.