<p>Under China’s dual-carbon goals, improving the coordinated development of the water–energy–food–ecology (WEFE) system is essential for achieving resource-efficient and low-carbon transition. However, existing studies have paid insufficient attention to the long-term provincial-scale evolution of WEFE coupling coordination in China, and few have integrated system evaluation, spatial pattern identification, and driver detection within a unified analytical framework. To address this gap, this study constructs a multidimensional evaluation system with 32 indicators for 30 Chinese provinces during 2006–2023, and combines the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, spatial autocorrelation analysis, standard deviation ellipse (SDE), and GeoDetector to examine the temporal dynamics, spatial differentiation, and associated driving factors of WEFE coordination. The results show that China’s provincial WEFE coupling coordination degree (WEFE-CCD) increased overall during the study period, indicating a gradual improvement in coordinated development. Significant positive spatial autocorrelation was observed in most years, and the spatial center of WEFE-CCD remained in Henan Province while shifting slightly northeastward over time. In addition, the spatial differentiation of WEFE-CCD was closely associated with regional heterogeneity in demographic, economic, technological, and urbanization conditions. By revealing both the spatiotemporal evolution and the contextual drivers of WEFE coordination at the provincial scale, this study adds national-scale evidence to the WEFE nexus literature under the dual-carbon context. The findings provide practical implications for differentiated provincial governance, cross-regional resource allocation, and more targeted policy design in water management, energy transition, food security, and ecological regulation to improve WEFE coordination in China.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>