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<p>Rising energy demand and the worsening climate crisis place energy systems under dual pressure from structural adjustment and low-carbon transition. Strengthening energy industry chain resilience is therefore essential for sustaining a stable energy transition. This study evaluates the resilience of China’s energy industry chain across 30 provinces during 2005-2022 through a three-dimensional framework of robustness, restorability, and adaptability from a dual production and consumption perspective, and further identifies its spatiotemporal evolution and prediction. The results show that China’s energy industry chain resilience increased steadily over the study period, while significant regional heterogeneity persisted. Eastern China was mainly supported by stronger consumption-side resilience, whereas western China relied more on production-side capacity and resource advantages, while the central and northeastern regions lagged behind. The spatial pattern exhibited clear stage characteristics, and the production-consumption relationship became increasingly balanced. The pattern evolved from an early structure dominated by the eastern and western regions toward a more dispersed distribution, with cross-regional supply-demand coordination continuing to strengthen. Forecast results further indicate that China’s energy industry chain resilience will continue to improve through 2030, although marked regional disparities are likely to persist. Overall, energy industry chain resilience in China depends on the coordinated evolution of production and consumption across regions. These findings highlight the need for differentiated regional strategies, stronger cross-regional coordination, and better alignment between production capacity and consumption flexibility.</p>

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Dynamic assessment and forecasting of China’s energy industry chain resilience from the perspective of production and consumption

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月14日

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  • Shuning Gao,
  • Jian Chai

摘要

Rising energy demand and the worsening climate crisis place energy systems under dual pressure from structural adjustment and low-carbon transition. Strengthening energy industry chain resilience is therefore essential for sustaining a stable energy transition. This study evaluates the resilience of China’s energy industry chain across 30 provinces during 2005-2022 through a three-dimensional framework of robustness, restorability, and adaptability from a dual production and consumption perspective, and further identifies its spatiotemporal evolution and prediction. The results show that China’s energy industry chain resilience increased steadily over the study period, while significant regional heterogeneity persisted. Eastern China was mainly supported by stronger consumption-side resilience, whereas western China relied more on production-side capacity and resource advantages, while the central and northeastern regions lagged behind. The spatial pattern exhibited clear stage characteristics, and the production-consumption relationship became increasingly balanced. The pattern evolved from an early structure dominated by the eastern and western regions toward a more dispersed distribution, with cross-regional supply-demand coordination continuing to strengthen. Forecast results further indicate that China’s energy industry chain resilience will continue to improve through 2030, although marked regional disparities are likely to persist. Overall, energy industry chain resilience in China depends on the coordinated evolution of production and consumption across regions. These findings highlight the need for differentiated regional strategies, stronger cross-regional coordination, and better alignment between production capacity and consumption flexibility.