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<p>Under the dual pressures of climate change and population growth, striking a balance between agriculture’s dual functions of food security and environmental security has become a critical issue, making a systematic assessment of the current state of global agricultural development an urgent priority. Therefore, this study adopts the perspective of agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) and employs the Super-EBM model to measure AGTFP across 127 countries from 2000 to 2021. By integrating ArcGIS, kernel density estimation, and the Tobit model, we systematically analyze its spatiotemporal evolution, distribution dynamics, and influencing factors. The results indicate: (1) Global AGTFP has performed well overall, but only 14.2% of countries are highly efficient (AGTFP &gt; 1), while 34 countries have AGTFP values below 0.6, indicating significant room for improvement. (2) Developed countries’ AGTFP continues to lead that of developing countries, with the gap widening from 0.13 in 2000 to 0.16 in 2021, showing a trend of expansion. (3) Significant heterogeneity in AGTFP was observed at the national level: Australia and Germany achieved notable growth, while countries such as Brazil and Sudan continued to decline. (4) At the continental level, Oceania demonstrated the greatest improvement in AGTFP, while South America had the lowest efficiency (mean &lt; 0.6); North America and Africa both exhibited right-skewed distributions, indicating significant regional development disparities. (5) Industrial structure, economic level, foreign trade, and the proportion of electricity users all have a positive impact on AGTFP. This study provides valuable policy implications for achieving sustainable agricultural development.</p>

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Spatial and temporal characteristics and driving factors of changes in global agricultural green total factor productivity —— based on data from 127 countries around the world

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月29日

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  • Ruonan Chang,
  • Dalai Ma,
  • Jianwei Tan,
  • Yin Yan,
  • Pengli Deng,
  • Chao Hu,
  • Kaihua Li,
  • Zuman Guo

摘要

Under the dual pressures of climate change and population growth, striking a balance between agriculture’s dual functions of food security and environmental security has become a critical issue, making a systematic assessment of the current state of global agricultural development an urgent priority. Therefore, this study adopts the perspective of agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) and employs the Super-EBM model to measure AGTFP across 127 countries from 2000 to 2021. By integrating ArcGIS, kernel density estimation, and the Tobit model, we systematically analyze its spatiotemporal evolution, distribution dynamics, and influencing factors. The results indicate: (1) Global AGTFP has performed well overall, but only 14.2% of countries are highly efficient (AGTFP > 1), while 34 countries have AGTFP values below 0.6, indicating significant room for improvement. (2) Developed countries’ AGTFP continues to lead that of developing countries, with the gap widening from 0.13 in 2000 to 0.16 in 2021, showing a trend of expansion. (3) Significant heterogeneity in AGTFP was observed at the national level: Australia and Germany achieved notable growth, while countries such as Brazil and Sudan continued to decline. (4) At the continental level, Oceania demonstrated the greatest improvement in AGTFP, while South America had the lowest efficiency (mean < 0.6); North America and Africa both exhibited right-skewed distributions, indicating significant regional development disparities. (5) Industrial structure, economic level, foreign trade, and the proportion of electricity users all have a positive impact on AGTFP. This study provides valuable policy implications for achieving sustainable agricultural development.