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<p>Enhancing urban ecological resilience is a central challenge for global sustainable development amid rapid urbanization. Since 1992, China’s National Garden City (NGC) initiative has pioneered an approach that harmonizes the relationship between people and nature through systematic green space planning and ecological infrastructure development. This study develops a three-dimensional assessment framework for urban ecological resilience based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model, applying the entropy weight method to calculate the resilience index. A multi-period Difference-in-Differences (DID) model is employed to identify the dynamic effects of the NGC policy, while exploring regional heterogeneity and spatial spillovers. Results show that: (1) from 2002 to 2022, the average ecological resilience of 280 cities declined overall but displayed clear spatial variation, with higher values in the Central-South region; (2) the establishment of NGCs significantly enhanced urban ecological resilience, improving it by approximately 1.95% points compared with non-NGC cities; (3) policy impacts varied across regions, with both the East China (EC) and North China (NC) regions presenting significant positive effects; and (4) NGCs generated significant positive spatial spillovers, raising neighboring cities’ ecological resilience by 0.33%. These findings provide empirical evidence that the NGC policy can effectively improve urban environmental quality and strengthen ecological resilience, while offering methodological innovation and scientific support for land use planning and resilient urban development.</p>

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A policy experiment on enhancing urban ecological resilience: identifying the policy effects of National Garden Cities in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月20日

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  • Wenbin Xu,
  • Longqin Li,
  • Yisu Zhang,
  • Haorui Wu,
  • Yuanli Ni,
  • Jiaxu Li,
  • Binyue Kang,
  • Zhibo Du,
  • Weiqing Meng,
  • Hongyuan Li

摘要

Enhancing urban ecological resilience is a central challenge for global sustainable development amid rapid urbanization. Since 1992, China’s National Garden City (NGC) initiative has pioneered an approach that harmonizes the relationship between people and nature through systematic green space planning and ecological infrastructure development. This study develops a three-dimensional assessment framework for urban ecological resilience based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model, applying the entropy weight method to calculate the resilience index. A multi-period Difference-in-Differences (DID) model is employed to identify the dynamic effects of the NGC policy, while exploring regional heterogeneity and spatial spillovers. Results show that: (1) from 2002 to 2022, the average ecological resilience of 280 cities declined overall but displayed clear spatial variation, with higher values in the Central-South region; (2) the establishment of NGCs significantly enhanced urban ecological resilience, improving it by approximately 1.95% points compared with non-NGC cities; (3) policy impacts varied across regions, with both the East China (EC) and North China (NC) regions presenting significant positive effects; and (4) NGCs generated significant positive spatial spillovers, raising neighboring cities’ ecological resilience by 0.33%. These findings provide empirical evidence that the NGC policy can effectively improve urban environmental quality and strengthen ecological resilience, while offering methodological innovation and scientific support for land use planning and resilient urban development.